Gale Warning 372, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 042320
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT FRI APR 4 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE 
INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY SAT NIGHT. A 1005 MB LOW 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF 
ST PAUL AT 1005 MB SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-051400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT FRI APR 4 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-051400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT FRI APR 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-051400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT FRI APR 4 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-051400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT FRI APR 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-051400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT FRI APR 4 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-051400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT FRI APR 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-051400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT FRI APR 4 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 
2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-051400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT FRI APR 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-051400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT FRI APR 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-051400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT FRI APR 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-051400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT FRI APR 4 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-051400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT FRI APR 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
255 PM ADT THU APR 3 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALL MODELS ARE HANDLING PATTERN VERY REASONABLY AND ARE IN RELATIVE
AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS A DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS LATER THIS
WEEKEND IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE OPERATIONAL IS IN LINE WITH THE NAM
AND ECMWF SO HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION.

.UPPER LEVELS...
COLD CORE UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL BEGIN
DIVING SOUTH TONIGHT WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM THE POLAR JET. THE
TROF AXIS WILL ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE NORTH GULF WHICH WILL ALLOW THE COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE MAINLAND. A MORE CONCENTRIC UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
SETTLE BACK INTO A SIMILAR LOCATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMAIN THIS
MORNING BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO INLAND AREAS...WITH MORE
STEADY RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. THE NORTHERN SUSITNA
CONTINUES TO SEE PRECIPITATION WITH GENTLE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS
PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT. SKWENTNA REPORTED 8 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING HAVING A
LIMITING EFFECT ON ACCUMULATIONS.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY EAST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AGAIN ON
KODIAK ISLAND IN THE FORM OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW INLAND.
A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND AND MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE THE
MUCH ADVERTISED COLD AIR ADVECTION SCREAMING THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE. MAX GALES ARE LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS THROUGH THE USUAL
AREAS IN THE COASTAL WATER ZONES. RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST WILL
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY INCLUDE ANCHORAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCIES
IN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND LOCATION OF TROF AXIS AS IT SHIFTS INTO
THE GULF BUT OVERALL FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT ANCHORAGE WILL SEE
SOME SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND...MOST LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SNOW WORDING AT THIS POINT.

.WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...985 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NORTHWEST OF
HOOPER BAY NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 925
MB MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE FROM BRISTOL BAY ALL THE WAY UP TO
MCGRATH. AN UNCHARACTERISTICALLY BREEZY DAY IN MCGRATH TODAY WITH
SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 30 KTS AND SNOW. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL STAY
UP THROUGH THE EVENING.

STRONG COLD AIR WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MADE IT TO THE ALASKA RANGE AND WILL
INCREASE THE GAP WINDS. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER FREEZING
SPRAY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB APR 08