Brisk Wind Advisory 41, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 051158
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY SAT NIGHT. A 1005 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SHEMYA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTH OF ST PAUL AT 1003
MB SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-060200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-060200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 15 IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ165-060200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-060200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-060200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-060200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-060200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-060200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT THIS MORNING. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-060200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-060200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-060200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT FRI APR 4 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...OVERALL PATTERN OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
THE LAST NUMBER OF RUNS. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THAT WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. THE DIFFERENCE OCCURS IN COMPARING THE 00Z MODEL
RUN OF THE GFS TO THE PREVIOUS ONES AND THIS MORNINGS 12Z GFS RUN.
THE 00Z TRIED TO SPLIT THE ENERGY OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK AND SEND SOME OF IT SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER PART
INTO THE YUKON TERRITORIES BY WAY OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE OTHER
RUNS INCLUDING THE MORE CURRENT 12Z RUN ELONGATES THE LOW BEFORE IT
SPLITS IT AND THEN HAS THE NORTHERN LOW STAY JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT THEN PULLS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE MARINE
FORECASTS AROUND THE GULF AS WELL AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA. THE NAM MODEL IS DOING THE SAME THING AS THE GFS BUT
BRINGS THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT IS ANCHORING A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
DISCUSSED EARLIER A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE ALL
SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN
BRISTOL BAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AFTER A SLIGHT
DELAY ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. THIS WILL BRING COLDER
AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO KODIAK. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE IN DRIER AIR
BUT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE
CASE FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
ANCHORAGE AND NEARBY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. SNOW MAY BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB ISOTHERMS ARE
NICELY ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH AS ARE THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
VALUES. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS NOT IN IDEAL POSITION BEING JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUND INSTEAD OF IN THE SOUND IT SHOULD SUFFICE TO PUSH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE ANCHORAGE AREA
WHICH WILL PRODUCE SNOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS ON
THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THAT TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 140 150 155 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 08