Gale Warning 309, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 170524 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
920 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

UPDATED ZONE 140

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW 140 NM EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES
TONIGHT. A 992 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING
MOVES TO 130 NM WEST OF JUNEAU AT 982 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
THEN MOVES INLAND NEAR CROSS SOUND AND WEAKENS. A 988 MB LOW NEAR
SAND POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOVES TO 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND AT 990 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-171400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-171400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-171400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-171400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 20 KT GUSTING 30 KT
WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS THIS EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT GUSTING 35 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT THIS
EVENING. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
920 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.

$$

PKZ141-171400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 171114
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT MON MAR 17 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 989 MB LOW 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
AND MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-180200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT MON MAR 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT MON MAR 17 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-180200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT MON MAR 17 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-180200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT MON MAR 17 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-180200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT MON MAR 17 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT MON MAR 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT MON MAR 17 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 5
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT MON MAR 17 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-180200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT MON MAR 17 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE STREAK OF INITIALIZING WELL AND
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT
AND MID TERM SOLUTIONS. LARGEST DIFFERENCES ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK
WITH DEVELOPING NPAC LOW. HAVE LEFT FORECAST ALONE BEYOND MID WEEK
UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THREE HEADED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR FORECAST DOMAIN WITH MAIN
LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...A SECONDARY LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF...AND A THIRD WEAKER LOW NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. UPPER TROF
AXIS IN PROGRESS OF SHIFTING FROM THE EASTERN BERING TO THE NORTHERN
GULF WHERE IT WILL RESIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
CHALLENGES ARISE FROM FORECASTING THE TIMING AND IMPACTS OF SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
WITH WEAK GRADIENT AT ALL LEVELS AS BROAD TROF MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE AND THERMAL GRADIENT INCREASE
WITH TIME AS THE STACKED LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR MIDDLETON
ISLAND. THIS WILL LEAD TO GAP WINDS IN THE NORMAL PLACES AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THOMPSON PASS ALREADY SHOWING
SIGNS OF STRONG WIND HEADLINE CRITERIA. ALTHOUGH MODELS TREND TOWARD
A DRYING PATTERN...HAVE TO STEP CAUTIOUSLY AS THIS PATTERN IS
CONDUCIVE TO SURPRISE SNOW EVENTS IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COUPLED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOWS
DEVELOPING AND MEANDERING ABOUT MIDDLETON ISLAND TO PWS CAN VERY
EASILY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW IN ANCHORAGE. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT BUT BELIEVE AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW.

WEST...COLD AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
EASTERN BERING SEA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. AGAIN...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES WILL BE
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE. WIDESPREAD SNOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST VORT MAX TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO BRISTOL BAY...LIKELY TAKING THE SNOW WITH
IT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE WINDS HAVE
ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND FRESH SNOW HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. IF WINDS CAN SUSTAIN...WE COULD SEE MORE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. FOR NOW...WILL WORD THE
FORECAST HEAVILY TOWARD THAT BUT HOLD BACK ON ISSUING ANOTHER
BLIZZARD WARNING.

SIMILAR STORY OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE PRIBILOFS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS
AND BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK...IF NOT ALL WEEK LONG. WAITING PATIENTLY FOR CIRRUS SHIELD TO
MOVE SOUTH THE PRIBILOFS SO WE CAN GET A BETTER LOOK OF THE SEA ICE.
THE FORECAST FOR THE PRIBILOFS WILL CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE ICE EDGE IS...AT THIS POINT BELIEVE ST PAUL MAY ESCAPE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AND JUST SEE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ST GEORGE
ISLAND WILL HAVE ENOUGH WATER BETWEEN THEM AND THE ICE TO ALLOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...COUPLED WITH THE STRONG WINDS COULD
LEND TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WE ARE WATCHING CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO
MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON A ST GEORGE ISLAND BLIZZARD.

THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL SEE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLUSTERY WINDS AS WELL. THE FORECAST WILL BE WORDED STRONGLY TOWARD
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THE AKPEN AS THE FIRST PUSH OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING AND THEN A SECOND STRONGER PUSH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE TIMING BECOMES DIFFICULT BUT THERE IS NO
INDICATION THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT SO WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LONG RANGE MODELS HINTING AT OMEGA BLOCKING
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE
EASTERN BERING IN COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AND SOUTHCENTRAL IN SEASONAL
COOL TEMPERATURES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 150 155 160 165 170 172 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB MAR 08