Gale Warning 307, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 162357
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW 140 NM EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES
TONIGHT. A 992 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING
MOVES TO 130 NM WEST OF JUNEAU AT 982 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
THEN MOVES INLAND NEAR CROSS SOUND AND WEAKENS. A 988 MB LOW NEAR
SAND POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOVES TO 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND AT 990 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-171400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-171400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASS.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-171400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-171400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 20 KT GUSTING 30 KT
WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS THIS EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT GUSTING 35 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT THIS
EVENING. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 15 KT THIS
EVENING. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.

$$

PKZ141-171400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE REMAINS TO BE AN EXPANSIVE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CAN BE FOUND IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND THE USUAL SPOTS
IN SOUTHCENTRAL ARE BEING DOWNSLOPED. A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS FORMING
THIS MORNING ALONG THE INITIAL FRONT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW
WILL QUICKLY MOVE INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE TO THE FORECAST. THE PARENT LOW OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND SPIN
AROUND THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEHIND THE LOW...STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE BERING SEA AS THE SIBERIAN HIGH
DRIBBLES INTO THE WESTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS
CONTINUES TO PERFORM THE BEST IN THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST PERIODS...AND
THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTS UPON THE LATEST RUN IN THE SHORT
TERM. THERE ARE CONCERNS WITH THE HANDLING OF A RELATIVELY QUICK
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND INTO THE GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND THEN DEEPENS IT THE MOST. NOT READY TO BITE OFF ON THIS SOLUTION
YET...BUT IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
EXPECTING TO SEE A GENERAL DRYING PATTERN TODAY AS FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHERLY FOR MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. EVEN COASTAL AREAS OUTSIDE
OF KODIAK HAD A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING PRECIPITATION AS THE FLOW WAS
LARGELY OFFSHORE. TRIPLE POINT LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH
ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THE BERING SEA
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING MORE
SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO KODIAK AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST. THIS LOW
WILL LINGER AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF UNTIL AT LEAST MIDWEEK...LEAVING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS JUST
ENOUGH TO CREATE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY REGIONS AS COLDER NORTHERLY WINDS START TO
COME IN. A POTENT ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION HIGH THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME A CONCERN ALONG COASTAL AREAS STARTING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT THIS
POINT.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
SLOW MOVING BERING SEA LOW PRESSURE REMNANT STILL HAS A FEW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT OTHERWISE NOT CAUSING A LOT OF WEATHER THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
BURST OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INTO DUTCH HARBOR
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. EXPECTING GOOD SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLOWING SNOW WITH THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR. A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY MORNING AND RACE
THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING
A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS BEHIND IT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS BEGINS TO DWINDLE BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK...BUT
THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK SUGGESTS A COLD AND DRY REGIME FOR MUCH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND TYPICAL SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO FOR
THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 140 170
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY  179 185 412
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DANG MAR 08