Gale Warning 306, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 161812 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1005 AM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

AMENDED 121 138

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 984 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR
CAPE FAIRWEATHER SUNDAY EVENING. A 985 MB LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL
MOVE TO 150 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 991 MB MONDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-170200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-170200-
RESURRECTION BAY
1005 AM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-170200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-170200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-170200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-170200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-170200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1005 AM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-170200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-170200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 162357
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW 140 NM EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES
TONIGHT. A 992 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING
MOVES TO 130 NM WEST OF JUNEAU AT 982 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
THEN MOVES INLAND NEAR CROSS SOUND AND WEAKENS. A 988 MB LOW NEAR
SAND POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOVES TO 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND AT 990 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-171400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-171400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASS.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-171400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-171400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 20 KT GUSTING 30 KT
WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS THIS EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT GUSTING 35 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT THIS
EVENING. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 15 KT THIS
EVENING. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.

$$

PKZ141-171400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 16 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SAT MAR 15 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS
REASONABLE AND IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH WED. LOW CENTER THAT MODELS
SHOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SUN NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
MORE COMPLEX THEN CONSOLIDATED CENTER DEPICTED.

.UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS AS LOW CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SHIFTS EAST TO
THE NORTH GULF SUN AFTERNOON. GEN LOW CENTER WEAKENS OVER THE GULF.
LONG WAVE EVENTUALLY COMES IN PHASE WED WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MAINLAND...TO ALONG 155W. NW FLOW
OVER THE BERING SEA INCREASES THROUGH WED AS TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND MID
RANGE...SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE. OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF TODAY
HAS LOST SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS A SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY LOW CENTER
DEVELOPS ALONG TRAILING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS
CENTER INTENSIFIES TO THE UPPER 970S UNDER STRONG SW JET AND MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUN MORNING. FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY IMPACTING
SOUTHCENTRAL/NORTH GULF WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADVISORY/WARNING LEVEL PRECIPITATION OR WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SEE STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHCENTRAL AND A BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.

WEST...FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SW ALASKA WEAKENS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SECONDARY FRONTAL WRAP AROUND LOW CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND
PRIBILOFS ISLANDS TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
CENTER WILL LIKELY ENHANCE NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
CENTER TO GALE STRENGTH OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. NW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AK PEN AND DIMINISH OVER THE ALEUTIANS AS LOW CENTER
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA MON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS THIS TIME
FRAME...WILL MAKE FEW IF ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 125 170 172 175 176 AND 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 08