Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 272144
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
241 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

AZC019-272300-
/X.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-070727T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
241 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM MST FOR
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

AT 233 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATED SEVERAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD 
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. ONE THUNDERSTORM WITH 
HEAVY RAIN EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF ORO VALLEY TO CATALINA 
AND TOWARD THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CATALINA MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER AREA OF 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF 
TUCSON TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS. YET ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS OVER 
THE FAR SOUTHEAST SIDE OF TUCSON TOWARD VAIL.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

LAT...LON 3198 11114 3193 11047 3251 11052 3250 11117

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 272233
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
330 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

AZC019-272233-
/X.CAN.KTWC.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-070727T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
330 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA
COUNTY...

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS 
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OR ENDED. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT UP TO 
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN AND AROUND CATALINA...WHERE SOME FLOW IS 
LIKELY OCCURRING ON THE CANADA DEL ORO WASH. RAIN GAGES AND SPOTTERS 
NEAR DOWNTOWN TO CENTRAL TUCSON RECORDED UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN 
INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN ONE HALF HOUR.

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE PASSAGE.

LAT...LON 3198 11114 3193 11047 3251 11052 3250 11117

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL STEER A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVELS DISTURBANCES WEST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THESE DISTURBANCES...COUPLED WITH REINFORCING MOISTURE MOVING UP THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTICULARLY ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
MOSTLY BE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT ACTION HAS STARTED IN THE
VALLEYS. MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS HAS BEEN RATHER SQUIRRLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW. THESE STORMS LIKELY ARE MOVING WHERE THEY
CAN FIND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE...SORT OF LIKE PLAYING THE PACMAN
ARCADE GAME. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE STEERING FLOW IN THE
COLUMN UP TO 20K. BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE VALLEYS NEEDING OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAIN IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND AN UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROF APPROACHING FROM THE EAST.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THIS FEATURE WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR
LUBBOCK. THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE INCREASING...THUS INCREASING THE
THREAT OF WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY....WHICH COULD HAPPEN ANYWHERE. THE GFS MODEL IS
TARGETING EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE UPPER HIGH MIGRATING EAST THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WITH AN INVERTED TROF MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. THUS
WILL CONTINUE STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING WITH KOLS AND KDUG HAVING BETTER CHANCE
OF SEEING STORM ACTIVITY. CB BASES COULD AGAIN GET AS LOW AS 5-7KFT
AGL WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 45KTS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN.
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL BE AROUND OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JRG

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON