Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 272131
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
229 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

AZC021-272200-
/X.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070727T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PINAL AZ-
229 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY...

AT 224 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT A SECOND THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING 
THROUGH THE SAN MANUEL AREA. THE FIRST THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN 
THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND MOVED SOUTH INTO FAR 
NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3254 11075 3253 11050 3266 11050 3261 11074

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 272159
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

AZC021-272205-
/X.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070727T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PINAL AZ-
255 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM MST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
PINAL COUNTY...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN IN SAN MANUEL HAD ENDED 
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN FALLING. THE THREAT FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED 
BUT THE WASHES ARE LIKELY STILL RUNNING AND WILL SLOWLY RECEDE. 

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE PASSAGE.

LAT...LON 3254 11075 3253 11050 3266 11050 3261 11074

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL STEER A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVELS DISTURBANCES WEST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THESE DISTURBANCES...COUPLED WITH REINFORCING MOISTURE MOVING UP THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTICULARLY ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
MOSTLY BE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT ACTION HAS STARTED IN THE
VALLEYS. MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS HAS BEEN RATHER SQUIRRLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW. THESE STORMS LIKELY ARE MOVING WHERE THEY
CAN FIND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE...SORT OF LIKE PLAYING THE PACMAN
ARCADE GAME. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE STEERING FLOW IN THE
COLUMN UP TO 20K. BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE VALLEYS NEEDING OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAIN IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND AN UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROF APPROACHING FROM THE EAST.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THIS FEATURE WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR
LUBBOCK. THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE INCREASING...THUS INCREASING THE
THREAT OF WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY....WHICH COULD HAPPEN ANYWHERE. THE GFS MODEL IS
TARGETING EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE UPPER HIGH MIGRATING EAST THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WITH AN INVERTED TROF MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. THUS
WILL CONTINUE STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING WITH KOLS AND KDUG HAVING BETTER CHANCE
OF SEEING STORM ACTIVITY. CB BASES COULD AGAIN GET AS LOW AS 5-7KFT
AGL WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 45KTS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN.
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL BE AROUND OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JRG

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON