Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 272148
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
248 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

AZC003-272245-
/X.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-070727T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
248 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 245 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE 
COUNTY INCLUDING THE SIERRA VISTA AREA PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.  
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF 
RAINFALL EAST OF SIERRA VISTA.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARLY 
STATIONARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
HEREFORD...BISBEE...RUCKER CANYON LAKE AND THE JUNCTION OF HIGHWAYS 
80 AND 90.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE PASSAGE.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3134 11045 3134 10985 3168 10995 3170 11045

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL STEER A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVELS DISTURBANCES WEST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THESE DISTURBANCES...COUPLED WITH REINFORCING MOISTURE MOVING UP THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTICULARLY ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
MOSTLY BE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT ACTION HAS STARTED IN THE
VALLEYS. MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS HAS BEEN RATHER SQUIRRLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW. THESE STORMS LIKELY ARE MOVING WHERE THEY
CAN FIND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE...SORT OF LIKE PLAYING THE PACMAN
ARCADE GAME. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE STEERING FLOW IN THE
COLUMN UP TO 20K. BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE VALLEYS NEEDING OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAIN IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND AN UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROF APPROACHING FROM THE EAST.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THIS FEATURE WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR
LUBBOCK. THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE INCREASING...THUS INCREASING THE
THREAT OF WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY....WHICH COULD HAPPEN ANYWHERE. THE GFS MODEL IS
TARGETING EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE UPPER HIGH MIGRATING EAST THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WITH AN INVERTED TROF MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. THUS
WILL CONTINUE STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING WITH KOLS AND KDUG HAVING BETTER CHANCE
OF SEEING STORM ACTIVITY. CB BASES COULD AGAIN GET AS LOW AS 5-7KFT
AGL WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 45KTS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN.
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL BE AROUND OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JRG

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON