Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
818 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD
FRONT ACROSS KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY HAS SLOWLY BEEN
PUSHING SOUTH...AND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY 9 PM.
MCV ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AS SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...HAS
AIDED IN THE FASTER MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT THE
BULK TO REMAIN JUST WEST...CLOSER TO THE MCV. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF KANSAS SHOULD DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT THIS LATEST THINKING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING THE HEAT OF
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...WITH A FEW STORMS STILL REMAINING AT 8 PM. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007/

DISCUSSION...
SOGGY AIRMASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT IN THE LOWER
70S...AND ENOUGH SUN HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHRA
-TSRA FROM I40 SOUTH.  EXPECT THAT CONVECTION TO
WHITHER AWAY DURING EVENING HOURS.   MORE POTENT
TSRA ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN KANSAS...AIDED BY
WESTERN KANSAS MCV LESS BENIGN. CURRENT THINKING
IS KANSAS ACTION WILL STAY WEST OR NORTH OF MOST
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. RAISED POPS ALONG IMMEDIATE
KANSAS BORDER. IF HEAVY RAIN DOES MATERIALIZE IN
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA..A FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.

WEST-EAST SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH INTO CWA
THURSDAY.   HIGHER MAV POPS JUSTIFIED OVER LOWER
MET GIVEN LOW 70 DEWPOINTS. ATMOSPHERE EXTREMELY
WELL PRIMED AND ALMOST ANY AREA CONVERGENCE WILL
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.  PRIMARY AREA OF FORECAST
CONCERN SHIFTS TO  SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST.

PRIMED AND EASILY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  90  70  91 /  50  50  20  10
FSM   72  89  69  89 /  20  50  30  30
MLC   69  87  70  87 /  30  50  30  30
BVO   68  92  64  92 /  60  30  20  10
FYV   67  86  65  87 /  60  50  20  20
BYV   69  86  67  87 /  70  40  20  20
MKO   71  87  70  88 /  50  50  20  20
MIO   69  91  67  92 /  60  30  20  10
F10   70  86  69  87 /  40  50  20  20
HHW   70  88  70  88 /  20  60  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....03

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

ARZ001-050000-
BENTON AR-
632 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN BENTON

AT 632 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
WEST OF HILL TOP...REMAINING NEAR STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WALNUT HILL...HILL
TOP...PEA RIDGE...AVOCA AND GARFIELD.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

LAT...LON 3647 9392 3651 9408 3642 9415 3635 9400

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
855 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

ARZ020-050300-
FRANKLIN AR-
855 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     CENTRAL FRANKLIN

AT 855 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MEG...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OZARK...MEG...DENNING...
CECIL...ALTUS...TONEY...LONELM...CRAVENS AND WIEDERKEHR VILLAGE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3531 9386 3547 9370 3560 9390 3545 9404