Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Tulsa, OK

July 5, 2007Creek County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 5, 2007, 4:36 PM CDT for Creek County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 54 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 5, 2007, 4:36 PM CDT (21:36 UTC)
Expired: Jul 5, 2007, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 54 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Creek County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Lamont, OK (KLMN), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1113 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -39 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 583 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 2 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 0 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -20 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 052136
SVRTSA
OKC037-052230-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0153.070705T2136Z-070705T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
436 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 433 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH.
  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SAPULPA TO 8
  MILES EAST OF KIEFER...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE   
  A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TO TOPPLE TREES AND POWER    
  LINES.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...SAPULPA...
  KIEFER...KELLYVILLE AND MOUNDS.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3608 9627 3606 9603 3585 9603 3584 9630

$$

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 052155
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

OKC037-052230-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-070705T2230Z/
CREEK OK-
455 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN CREEK COUNTY...

AT 452 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO
60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOUNDS
TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF KELLYVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MOUNDS.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3600 9628 3606 9603 3585 9603 3584 9630

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 052228
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

OKC037-052238-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-070705T2230Z/
CREEK OK-
528 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CREEK COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 530 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA AND WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE 
WITH THIS STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN CREEK COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3600 9628 3606 9603 3585 9603 3584 9630

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 5, 3:03 PM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 3:03 PM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
303 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE IN OUR AREA WHICH MEANS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE
SOME STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A SMATTERING OF STORMS.  SOME ARE
LOCATED  ALONG A BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND OTHERS
ARE CLOSER TO A CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS.
THUS...HAVE SOME POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING AND MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WASH AWAY IN THE NEAR TERM BUT THE
UPPER CIRCULATION WILL BE A PLAYER IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WRF TRIES TO BRING A WAVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT THE GFS DOES NOT.
RH AND QPF FROM THE WRF IS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.
GIVEN TERRAIN COULD DO SOMETHING IN THE AREA EVEN WITHOUT
A WAVE SO HAVE LOW POPS FOR IT.

SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR POP CORN CONVECTION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  COULD SEE ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COOL FRONT INTO THE
AREA.  CHOSE NOT TO TOTALLY BITE ON IT YET AS THE 06Z RUN HAS
IT COMING WEDNESDAY AND THE 12Z THURSDAY.  THE ECMWF LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD STAY TO THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN FOR THE
MOS BEING NEAR OR A COUPLE DEGREES TOO COOL.  HAVE TRENDED
MAX/MINS IN THIS WAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  91  70  93 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   71  88  71  92 /  40  30  10  20
MLC   68  87  67  90 /  50  30  20  20
BVO   65  92  66  94 /  20   0  10   0
FYV   65  85  64  88 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   67  86  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   70  89  70  90 /  30  10  10  10
MIO   68  93  68  92 /  20   0  10  10
F10   69  88  69  90 /  30  20  10  10
HHW   69  83  70  88 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....17

ABBAS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 2:49 PM CDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
249 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING...ENDING BY MID EVENING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SEPARATE WEATHER FEATURES.  A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE AN UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN TEXAS PUSHES THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST...WITH IMPACTS BEING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  OTHERWISE...
THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THE RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAINS WITHIN A SHORT TIMEFRAME.
THIS RESULTS IN FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ADDITIONALLY...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES AND THE LATEST
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS /OKCFLSTSA/.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
REGIONAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
LOCAL SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY AS
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 5, 2:18 PM CDT, 2 hours 18 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
218 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

OKZ054-059-052000-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
218 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OSAGE AND CENTRAL PAWNEE

AT 218 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
EAST OF BLACKBURN...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OSAGE...MARAMEC...BLACKBURN...
SKEDEE AND CLEVELAND.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3631 9635 3647 9644 3648 9683 3617 9673

Special weather statement, Jul 5, 4:03 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
403 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

OKZ060-064-052145-
CREEK OK-TULSA OK-
403 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN CREEK AND SOUTHERN TULSA

AT 403 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM SAND SPRINGS TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROKEN
ARROW...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...GRAY...SAND SPRINGS...
LEONARD...BIXBY...JENKS...BROKEN ARROW AND SAPULPA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

LAT...LON 3617 9610 3611 9577 3586 9579 3610 9644

Special weather statement, Jul 5, 4:30 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
430 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

OKZ064-052215-
CREEK OK-
430 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CREEK

AT 430 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAPULPA TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF KIEFER...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...MOUNDS...KIEFER...
KELLYVILLE AND SAPULPA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A
WARNING.

LAT...LON 3608 9630 3608 9604 3587 9603 3585 9619
      3600 9647

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 4, 9:24 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Tulsa	2 hr
Jul 5, 7:57 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Cherokee	3 hr
Jul 5, 2:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pawnee	42 min
Jul 5, 4:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	42 min
Jul 5, 4:11 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Tulsa	4 hr
Jul 5, 4:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Tulsa	46 min
Jul 5, 4:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	45 min
Jul 5, 4:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okmulgee	50 min
Jul 5, 5:30 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Cherokee	4 hr
Jul 5, 6:08 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Adair	4 hr
Jul 5, 6:56 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Muskogee	2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.