Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
905 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR KFYV
TO KCQB. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE RATHER UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY BEEN WORKED OVER BY
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE CAP IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. I WOULD EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE IMPACTED BY A LARGE
MCS THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  90  73  92 /  60  20  10  10
FSM   71  91  69  92 /  50  30  10  10
MLC   71  89  70  91 /  60  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  70  92 /  40  20  10  10
FYV   66  86  65  87 /  20  40  10  10
BYV   66  86  67  87 /  20  30  10  10
MKO   71  88  70  91 /  60  30  10  10
MIO   70  89  71  91 /  40  30  10  10
F10   70  88  70  90 /  60  30  10  10
HHW   73  90  72  92 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1034 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1034 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR STILLWATER OKLAHOMA AND FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS RATHER UNSTABLE WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY EXPERIENCED
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...A LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THE PRIMARY
RISKS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE
OVERNIGHT STORMS.

AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER.  DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1124 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ054-200515-
OSAGE OK-
1124 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN OSAGE

AT 1124 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAWHUSKA TO 5 MILES NORTH OF
BIGHEART...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...WYNONA...PERSHING...
TALLANT...NELAGONEY...OKESA...PEARSONIA...BIGHEART AND HULAH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3662 9665 3704 9638 3695 9599 3636 9627

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1158 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ054-059-060-064-200530-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-TULSA OK-
1158 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHEASTERN CREEK...WESTERN TULSA AND
     SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE

AT 1158 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF WESTPORT TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF
WESTPORT TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KELLYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
TULSA...GRAY...SAND SPRINGS...WESTPORT...KELLYVILLE AND SAPULPA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3627 9638 3607 9631 3584 9645 3586 9614
      3612 9603 3635 9610

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1251 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

OKZ065-066-200630-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
1251 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 1251 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF OKFUSKEE TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF
BOLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...OKEMAH...WELEETKA...CLEARVIEW...
PHAROAH...CASTLE...BOLEY...MASON...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...HENRYETTA...
BRYANT...DEWAR...HOFFMAN...GRAYSON...SCHULTER AND WILSON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3554 9584 3548 9584 3547 9588 3541 9588
      3539 9596 3533 9598 3530 9612 3530 9631
      3539 9643 3545 9643 3548 9652 3564 9632
      3564 9619 3576 9614

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
141 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N PAWHUSKA            36.68N 96.34W
06/20/2007                   OSAGE              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 60 FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WAS BLOCKED BY
            WATER AND DEBRIS

0135 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FORAKER                 36.87N 96.57W
06/20/2007                   OSAGE              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS BLOCKED BY HIGH WATER AND DEBRIS IN THE
            AREA.

&&

MEB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
235 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

OKZ058-200815-
OTTAWA OK-
235 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OTTAWA

AT 235 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
WEST OF MIAMI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...NARCISSA...
OTTAWA...QUAPAW...CARDIN AND PICHER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3688 9502 3676 9500 3680 9480 3700 9461
      3699 9500

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
239 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

OKZ065-066-070-071-200845-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
239 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     MUSKOGEE AND EASTERN OKFUSKEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH

AT 239 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TAFT TO BEARDEN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS
INCLUDE...OKEMAH...CLEARVIEW...OKMULGEE...HENRYETTA...BRYANT...DEWAR.
..HOFFMAN...GRAYSON...SCHULTER...MORRIS...ERAM...EUFAULA...CHEC
OTAH...HANNA...VERNON...RAIFORD...VIVIAN...STIDHAM...ONAPA...PIER
CE...HITCHITA...RENTIESVILLE...MUSKOGEE...COUNCIL
HILL...WARNER...OKTAHA...KEEFETON...WAINWRIGHT...BOYNTON...SUMMIT...J
AMESVILLE...TAFT AND WILSON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.

LAT...LON 3577 9567 3543 9646 3528 9643 3531 9598
      3517 9595 3527 9557 3534 9534 3551 9515
      3579 9536