Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
905 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR KFYV
TO KCQB. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE RATHER UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY BEEN WORKED OVER BY
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE CAP IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. I WOULD EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE IMPACTED BY A LARGE
MCS THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  90  73  92 /  60  20  10  10
FSM   71  91  69  92 /  50  30  10  10
MLC   71  89  70  91 /  60  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  70  92 /  40  20  10  10
FYV   66  86  65  87 /  20  40  10  10
BYV   66  86  67  87 /  20  30  10  10
MKO   71  88  70  91 /  60  30  10  10
MIO   70  89  71  91 /  40  30  10  10
F10   70  88  70  90 /  60  30  10  10
HHW   73  90  72  92 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
527 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PAWNEE
        OKLAHOMA TO FORT SMITH ARKANSAS LINE.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. THE CAP HAS ALSO WEAKENED ACROSS THE REGION
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH THE MAIN THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WITH THE POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING.  THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER.  DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
837 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ061-067-200200-
ROGERS OK-WAGONER OK-
837 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND SOUTHERN ROGERS

AT 837 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
WEST OF INOLA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TULSA AND INOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3609 9579 3598 9561 3614 9543 3628 9565

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
850 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ064-200215-
CREEK OK-
850 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN CREEK

AT 850 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SLICK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SLICK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3583 9639 3568 9651 3563 9633 3574 9616

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
921 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ064-200300-
CREEK OK-
921 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN CREEK

AT 921 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF DEPEW...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MILFAY AND DEPEW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3567 9639 3579 9631 3590 9659 3566 9661

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
928 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     HAIL             DEPEW                   35.80N 96.51W
06/19/2007  E0.88 INCH       CREEK              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
956 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ060-061-067-200345-
ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
956 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN WAGONER...SOUTHEASTERN ROGERS AND CENTRAL TULSA

AT 956 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAGONER TO TULSA...
STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...TULSA...JENKS...GLENPOOL...BROKEN ARROW...WAGONER...COWETA
AND ONETA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3614 9560 3612 9558 3613 9550 3611 9545
      3607 9544 3607 9521 3592 9541 3595 9602
      3619 9599

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1013 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ062-200400-
MAYES OK-
1013 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL MAYES

AT 1013 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2
MILES EAST OF SALINA...REMAINING NEAR STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LOCUST GROVE...SALINA
AND SPAVINAW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3622 9499 3640 9502 3639 9530 3616 9525