Flash Flood Watch 12, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
905 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR KFYV
TO KCQB. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE RATHER UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY BEEN WORKED OVER BY
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE CAP IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. I WOULD EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE IMPACTED BY A LARGE
MCS THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  90  73  92 /  60  20  10  10
FSM   71  91  69  92 /  50  30  10  10
MLC   71  89  70  91 /  60  30  10  10
BVO   67  89  70  92 /  40  20  10  10
FYV   66  86  65  87 /  20  40  10  10
BYV   66  86  67  87 /  20  30  10  10
MKO   71  88  70  91 /  60  30  10  10
MIO   70  89  71  91 /  40  30  10  10
F10   70  88  70  90 /  60  30  10  10
HHW   73  90  72  92 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1034 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1034 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR STILLWATER OKLAHOMA AND FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS RATHER UNSTABLE WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY EXPERIENCED
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...A LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THE PRIMARY
RISKS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE
OVERNIGHT STORMS.

AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER.  DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
928 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     HAIL             DEPEW                   35.80N 96.51W
06/19/2007  E0.88 INCH       CREEK              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
956 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ060-061-067-200345-
ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
956 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN WAGONER...SOUTHEASTERN ROGERS AND CENTRAL TULSA

AT 956 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAGONER TO TULSA...
STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...TULSA...JENKS...GLENPOOL...BROKEN ARROW...WAGONER...COWETA
AND ONETA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3614 9560 3612 9558 3613 9550 3611 9545
      3607 9544 3607 9521 3592 9541 3595 9602
      3619 9599

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1013 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ062-200400-
MAYES OK-
1013 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL MAYES

AT 1013 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2
MILES EAST OF SALINA...REMAINING NEAR STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LOCUST GROVE...SALINA
AND SPAVINAW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3622 9499 3640 9502 3639 9530 3616 9525

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1033 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N BROKEN ARROW        36.07N 95.79W
06/19/2007                   TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            LIMBS DOWN AND POWER OUT NEAR LYNN LANE AND 61ST STREET
            IN BROKEN ARROW. ESTIMATED WINDS OF 60 MPH...POSSIBLE
            MICROBURST.

&&

NMK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1044 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ054-059-200415-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
1044 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 1044 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAWNEE TO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PAWNEE TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARAMEC...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...PAWNEE...JENNINGS...TERLTON...HALLETT...MARAMEC...SKEDEE
AND RALSTON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3649 9703 3634 9696 3617 9682 3616 9644
      3630 9657 3658 9680

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1124 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ054-200515-
OSAGE OK-
1124 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN OSAGE

AT 1124 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAWHUSKA TO 5 MILES NORTH OF
BIGHEART...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...WYNONA...PERSHING...
TALLANT...NELAGONEY...OKESA...PEARSONIA...BIGHEART AND HULAH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3662 9665 3704 9638 3695 9599 3636 9627