Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1036 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE SMALL BOW ECHO THAT HAS A LONG HISTORY OF
PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
55 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CARROLL
COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

THE TRAILING LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN BENTON
COUNTY TO LE FLORE COUNTY CONTINUE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE STORMS
IS ACROSS CARROLL...MADISON...EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY.  THE GREATEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.

THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS ALONG
THE LENGTH OF THE LINE AND WILL UNTIL THE LINE
EXITS OUR AREA.  JUST RECEIVED MEASURED
GUST REPORTS OF 58 MPH FROM FAYETTEVILLE AND
63 MPH FROM ROLAND OKLAHOMA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
844 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
844 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...TORNADIC THREAT CONTINUES OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
WITH MORE SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH...CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.  CURRENTLY...DANGEROUS
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE ONGOING
STORMS.  THIS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGE NEAR EF1 ON THE ENHANCED
FUJITA SCALE.

IN ADDITION TO THE DAMAGING WINDS...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT.  LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE ONGOING STORMS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ONGOING STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER. ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SKYWARN NETWORK IS
UNDERWAY. LOCAL SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE ACTIVE NEAR ANY OF THE
STORMS. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD READY FOR NOT ONLY SPOTTER
OPERATIONS BUT ALSO POTENTIAL IMPACT RECOVERY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1001 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

OKZ072-074-076-180345-
HASKELL OK-LE FLORE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
1001 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN HASKELL AND NORTHERN LE FLORE

AT 1001 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES WEST OF MILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...COTTONWOOD...KEOTA...
GANS...MULDROW...ROLAND...SHORT...MILTON...PANAMA...BOKOSHE...
SPIRO...SCULLYVILLE...BRADEN AND COWLINGTON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3563 9448 3526 9444 3506 9489 3521 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 227DEG 44KT 3519 9488

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1007 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND GST     TONTITOWN               36.18N 94.23W
10/17/2007  E60.00 MPH       WASHINGTON         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

1001 PM     TSTM WND GST     SAVOY                   36.11N 94.33W
10/17/2007  E60.00 MPH       WASHINGTON         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1036 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST FAYETTEVILLE            36.06N 94.16W
10/17/2007  M58.00 MPH       WASHINGTON         AR   ASOS

            MEASURED BY ASOS AT DRAKE FIELD.

1034 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N ROLAND              35.44N 94.51W
10/17/2007  M63.00 MPH       SEQUOYAH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JDS

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