Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 022105
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

OKC105-147-022145-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-071002T2145Z/
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
405 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NOWATA COUNTIES...

AT 401 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COPAN...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WANN...
LENAPAH...DELAWARE AND NOWATA.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3699 9551 3665 9553 3674 9600 3680 9600
      3681 9601 3700 9601
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 277DEG 27KT 3685 9584

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 022131
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
431 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

OKC105-147-022145-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-071002T2145Z/
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
431 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NOWATA COUNTIES...

AT 431 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LENAPAH...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3699 9551 3665 9553 3674 9600 3680 9600
      3681 9601 3700 9601
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 277DEG 27KT 3683 9560

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 022144
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

OKC105-147-022155-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-071002T2145Z/
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
445 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NOWATA
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 445 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3699 9551 3665 9553 3674 9600 3680 9600
      3681 9601 3700 9601
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 277DEG 27KT 3682 9547

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
205 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR AN ALVA...WICHITA LINE.  ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
AHEAD OF FRONT AND ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH SURFACE BASED LIS IN THE -5 TO -7 DEG C RANGE. AS
FRONT APPROACHES...EXPECT SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT AS 500 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM( -6 DEG C) WITH LIMITED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR A MIA/TUL LINE
AROUND 01Z WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOCATED NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN PWS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2.5
INCHES. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS
THUNDERSTORM LINE PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL TWEAK 1ST PERIOD POPS GIVEN LATEST
RADAR TRENDS/FRONTAL TIMING. MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE MAY BE JUST
EAST OF BVO AROUND 00Z SO FIRST PERIOD POPS REMAIN TRICKY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION INTO
THE WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER LOW LIFTS WELL NORTHEAST OF AREA INTO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE WARM WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  83  62  89 /  80  10  10  10
FSM   67  84  64  87 /  90  20  10  10
MLC   64  84  65  88 /  80  20  10  10
BVO   54  82  56  89 /  60  10  10  10
FYV   59  79  57  85 /  90  10  10  10
BYV   60  79  59  85 /  90  10  10  10
MKO   61  83  62  88 /  90  10  10  10
MIO   56  82  61  87 /  90   0  10  10
F10   62  83  63  89 /  80  10  10  10
HHW   71  88  70  89 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA... NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT.  WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING
TWO INCHES. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE REMAINS OF THE COLD
FRONT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.