Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
MESOSCALE GRIDS SHOW MODERATE CAPE AND SHEAR ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH VALUES MAXIMIZED ACROSS
OSAGE COUNTY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON...NOWATA...
PAWNEE...CREEK AND TULSA COUNTIES.

THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WERE MAXIMIZED ALONG
A ZONE FROM NEAR PAWNEE TO COPAN WHERE SFC BASED CAPES TO
2000 J/KG ARE IN PLACE WITH SHEAR TO 1KM OF 30 KNOTS.
HODOGRAPHS SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL TURNING IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.
MID-LEVEL STORM RELATIVE WINDS ARE WEAK WITH THE CURRENT
STORM MOTIONS...BUT A DROP IN CELL SPEEDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
AND ANY RIGHT MOTION DEVIATION WOULD RESULTED IN A MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE PROFILE.

STRONG CELLS THAT CROSSED OSAGE COUNTY SO FAR TODAY HAVE
BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH SUSTAINED MESOCYCLONES.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE THERE IS SOME LIMITED TORNADO THREAT
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....99

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
351 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

OKZ054-059-022145-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
351 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 351 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF OKESA TO 16 MILES WEST OF
PAWNEE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH
445 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3699 9601 3656 9600 3620 9650 3629 9694
      3632 9694 3635 9705 3646 9706 3655 9700
      3658 9691 3659 9698 3669 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 269DEG 27KT 3677 9603 3634 9706

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