Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1104 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE SUPERCELL STORM IN CRAIG COUNTY WILL TRACK INTO
300 M2/S2 S-R HELICITY IN OTTAWA COUNTY.  THE STORM
MOTION IS OFF THE HODOGRAPH ENOUGH TO GENERATE
10 KNOTS OF STORM-RELATIVE FLOW AROUND 2KM...WHICH IS NOT
IS UP FROM THE ESSENTIALLY ZERO A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO.
WHILE VALUES THROUGH THE STORM OF GREATER THAN 15 / 20
KNOTS IS OPTIMAL...THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT
HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE RECENT RADAR PRESENTATION.  THE
CELL LOOKS LIKE AN HP SUPERCELL WITH A LARGE HOOK ECHO.
THIS CELL WILL HAVE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS IT CROSSES
OTTAWA COUNTY AND A TORNADO WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN THE
NEXT HOUR AND RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT WITH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL LIKELY.
AT 1AM THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS
WILL BE NEAR A LINE FROM COFFEYVILLE TO LAKE KEYSTONE
TO WESTERN CREEK COUNTY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
832 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
832 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

...SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AT 830 PM...THE DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM EXTREME WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WHILE THE CAP HELD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WHILE THE
TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME...ANY OF THESE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING SUPERCELLS
GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...THERE EXISTS AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO THROUGH ABOUT 10 OR 11 PM...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS RACING SOUTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE EVENING. AS
THE COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNDERWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AS
WARM FRONT AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PLAN FOR ADDITIONAL STAFFING FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY...AND MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
929 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

OKZ054-055-080315-
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
929 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OSAGE

AT 928 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WYNONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...WYNONA...WOLCO...BARNSDALL...PERSHING...TALLANT...
NELAGONEY...OKESA...BARTLESVILLE...OCHELATA...DEWEY AND COPAN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3655 9643 3640 9631 3658 9582 3680 9582
      3694 9594

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1000 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BARTLESVILLE            36.75N 95.98W
06/07/2007                   WASHINGTON         OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN IN BARTLESVILLE

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1009 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     HAIL             BARTLESVILLE            36.75N 95.98W
06/07/2007  M1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN BARTLESVILLE

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1026 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 PM     TSTM WND GST     NOWATA                  36.70N 95.64W
06/07/2007  E60 MPH          NOWATA             OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            60 MPH GUST REPORTED BY STORM CHASER

&&

MAT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1048 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

OKZ056-080415-
NOWATA OK-
1048 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL NOWATA

AT 1048 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NOWATA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NOWATA AND DELAWARE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3677 9571 3667 9569 3666 9544 3696 9544

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

OKZ065-066-071-080500-
MCINTOSH OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
1137 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN MCINTOSH

AT 1137 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WELEETKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WELEETKA...
HENRYETTA...BRYANT...DEWAR...HOFFMAN...GRAYSON AND SCHULTER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3522 9635 3508 9622 3534 9571 3556 9591