Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
856 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
THE ORIENTATION OF THE DRYLINE IS BECOMING
MORE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEVELOPING CELLS MORE RESIDENCE
TIME IN / NEAR THE BOUNDARY ZONE.  THIS SHOULD
AID STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  CAPE BELOW 700MB IS
RATHER LOW IN THESE AREAS...BUT THE TOTAL CAPE REMAINS
BETWEEN 2500 AND 3600 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR
50 KNOTS.  THEREFORE AN UPSCALE EVOLUTION TO A SUPERCELL
MODE WILL OCCUR WITH ANY CELLS THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SLOW ORGANIZATION TO THE CELL
IN CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
832 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
832 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

...SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AT 830 PM...THE DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM EXTREME WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WHILE THE CAP HELD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WHILE THE
TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME...ANY OF THESE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING SUPERCELLS
GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...THERE EXISTS AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO THROUGH ABOUT 10 OR 11 PM...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS RACING SOUTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE EVENING. AS
THE COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNDERWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AS
WARM FRONT AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PLAN FOR ADDITIONAL STAFFING FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY...AND MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
929 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

OKZ054-055-080315-
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
929 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OSAGE

AT 928 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WYNONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...WYNONA...WOLCO...BARNSDALL...PERSHING...TALLANT...
NELAGONEY...OKESA...BARTLESVILLE...OCHELATA...DEWEY AND COPAN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3655 9643 3640 9631 3658 9582 3680 9582
      3694 9594