Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 060212
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
911 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

KSC127-060230-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-070506T0230Z/
MORRIS-
911 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN MORRIS COUNTY...

AT 908 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DUNLAP...OR ABOUT
18 MILES WEST OF EMPORIA...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUNLAP...WILSEY...COUNCIL GROVE LAKE...PARKERVILLE...DWIGHT AND
COUNCIL GROVE.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
TORNADOES RAPIDLY.

LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A BUILDING NOW.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3852 9673 3871 9672 3877 9669 3886 9668
      3886 9650 3882 9649 3881 9638 3874 9638
      3873 9636 3852 9636

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
429 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES
RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SURFACE LOW VICINITY OF NORTHEAST
NM AND OK PANHANDLE.  AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW INTO NW KS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE
BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED NNW TO SSE FROM NEAR PTT TO CBK.  12Z NAM
ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL KS IN WARM ADVECTION AREA. MCS RESULTING FROM THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS THEN TAKEN SOUTH.  18Z NAM DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR
DEVELOPING CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL KS BEFORE 06Z AND THEN SINKING
SYSTEM SWD.  12Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS SYSTEM ACROSS NW KS
WITH PROPAGATION/DEVELOPMENT EWD ACROSS NORTHERN KS OVERNIGHT.  THIS
IS MORE IN LINE WITH GOING FORECAST...AND 00Z MODEL RUNS...AND THUS
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR TIMING AND POPS.  IN THIS
CASE...MAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WOULD BE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL KS...WITH HEAVY RAIN/HAIL AND MAYBE
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.  DETERMINISTIC RUNS FROM 12Z NAM AND GFS
DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON PRECIP TIMING/CHANCES SATURDAY...BUT MAIN MESSAGE
FOR OUR AREA WAS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL KS LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING...THEN MOVING EAST.

GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS VERY NEAR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM GFS/NAM AND ONLY MODIFIED THEM A LITTLE.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN KS SATURDAY MAY NECESSITATE A
WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT TO LATER SHIFTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE MAIN 5H TROUGH OVER CO AND NM WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
ONCE AGAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP
AFTER THE STORMS SUNDAY MORNING. IF WE DO CLEAR OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MLCAPE COULD INCREASE ABOVE 2500 J/KG BY EARLY
EVENING ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR PROFILES THAT MAY
ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DURING SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY WE MAY SEE SEVERAL SQUALL LINES OR
LINE SEGMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. THIS COULD LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...THOUGH ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY 5H TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST US WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER WIND FIELDS ARE FORECASTED TO BE WEAKER...THUS THE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR MAY NOT SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ALSO CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP THE INSTABILITY LOWER. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL.  WE MAY SEE A GOOD TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
5H RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
10 PM CDT...GENERALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 35. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR
KSZ008>010-020>022-034>036.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
850 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-061100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
850 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT...GENERALLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO SPAWN ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING RAINS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
337 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

KSZ008-052100-
REPUBLIC-
337 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THROUGH 400 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTH AT 55 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS REPUBLIC COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
BELLEVILLE...CUBA...MUNDEN AND NARKA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.