Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 061458
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
956 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSC045-139-061630-
DOUGLAS-OSAGE-
956 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT FOR
OSAGE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

AT 954 AM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS CONTINUED TO INDICATE 
ONGOING FLOODING IN OSAGE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLINTON STATE PARK...LECOMPTON...LAWRENCE...EUDORA...CLINTON 
LAKE...BURLINGAME...CARBONDALE...OSAGE CITY...LYNDON AND MELVERN.

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 156 AND 206.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 157 AND 168.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

MOST DEATHS IN FLASH FLOODING OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER ATTEMPT TO
CROSS FLOWING WATER IN A CAR OR ON FOOT.

LAT...LON 3843 9594 3886 9594 3886 9550 3906 9549
      3906 9541 3903 9535 3903 9519 3896 9518
      3896 9508 3897 9506 3874 9506 3873 9550
      3843 9551

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE EXTENT OF REMNANT SQUALL LINE PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING THEN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE SEVERE BUT
HARD TO TELL WHERE MORNING BOUNDARIES MAY AFFECT INITIATION.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILERS SHOWING UPPER LOW ROTATING
AROUND COLORADO AND WYOMING WITH TROUGH SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY HINTED ROTATING OUT OF THROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVER DEEP SURFACE MOISTURE...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
GOING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE PULSE LIKE
IN NATURE SINCE AROUND 2 AM OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CWA WHILE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE...THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED...HEAVIER RAIN IN WAKE OF LINE...RADAR INDICATING GENERALLY
A BAND OF .75 TO 1.5 INCHES.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH DIURNAL DIMINISHING OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THEN
MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING OUT LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE TO
FIRE UP AGAIN.  DRY LINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WOULD BE FOCUS BUT OVER
CWA OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE.  SHEAR VALUES OVER
THESE BOUNDARIES WOULD AGAIN GIVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL/WINDS AND TORNADOES. SPC HAVING POSTED
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH OF CWA...HIGHER PROBABILITIES OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.  THUS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA...LOWEST POPS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL...ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35.   ON TOP OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING...HAVE THUS POSTED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR TODAY UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35.  HIGHS TODAY HELD MAINLY TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...SEVERE POTENTIAL EXITS AGAIN ESPECIALLY FOR EVENING
HOURS AND WITH UPPER DYNAMICS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST.  UPPER TROUGH
STILL THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 00Z TUESDAY.  SURFACE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z MONDAY.
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH THETA E AXIS...GIVING POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN...GOING WITH CATEGORICAL PRECIP WORDING NORTH AND
WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH 50 TO 60 POPS SOUTHEAST.  INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES SOME ON MONDAY WITH BOUNDARY AND UPPER LOW STILL PROVIDING
LIFT.  DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO UP THESE SOME LOOKING AT NEWER GUIDANCE.
HIGHS MONDAY HELD TO MAINLY THE 70S AGAIN WITH CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LITTLE CHANGE TO LATER PERIODS...WITH UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE
WEST...BUT FILLING SOME...SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ORDER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  LATEST GFS RUN WOULD CLOSE UPPER LOW
OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND SLOWLY TREK THIS EAST INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY
THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
COUNCIL GROVE...TOPEKA...TO LAWRENCE LINE.

&&

PF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
440 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
440 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
THAT WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE THIS MORNING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

STARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
646 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 N GOFF                39.77N 95.93W
05/06/2007  M3.00 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
649 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W MAPLE HILL          39.08N 96.05W
05/06/2007                   WABAUNSEE          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER STARTING TO COVER ROAD K30.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
659 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     FLASH FLOOD      AUBURN                  38.91N 95.82W
05/06/2007                   SHAWNEE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHAWNEE COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTING WATER FLOWING ACROSS
            AUBURN ROAD FROM THE TOWN OF AUBURN TO 61ST STREET.
            DEBRIS IS FLOATING OVER THE ROAD.

&&

EK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
702 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW TOPEKA             39.03N 95.70W
05/06/2007                   SHAWNEE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHAWNEE COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTING WATER FLOWING OVER NE
            46TH AND MERIDEN STREETS.

&&

EK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
704 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
05/06/2007                   SHAWNEE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY COUNTY ROADS FLOODED SOUTH OF 61ST STREET BETWEEN
            URISH AND HOCH ROADS.

&&

EK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
715 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 AM     HEAVY RAIN       10 NNE TOPEKA           39.18N 95.61W
05/06/2007  M2.50 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED IN ONE HOUR IN
            NORTHEASTERN SHAWNEE COUNTY.

&&

EK