Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
415 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING. HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AND ALSO HAVE ADDED JACKSON AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES. HPC DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHIC HAS NORTHEAST KS AT
RISK FOR EXCEEDING FFG. FFG VALUES ARE DECREASING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL CONTINUES ATTM. FFG VALUES
BELOW ONE INCH FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. AS
FAR AS THE SEVERE THREAT...SOME CONCERN EARLIER TODAY THAT WESTERN
CWA COULD SEE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND THAT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WOULD ALLOW FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY...RADAR IS SHOWING SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING THRU PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NE THRU CENTRAL KS AND INTO NW OKLAHOMA. HAVE HAD SOME
HAIL WITH THE CELLS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE. BELIEVE THAT
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH MAY LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT IN OUR CWA.

FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH NAM PROBABLY
TOO FAST TO MOVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THRU MONDAY. UPPER LOW REMAINS IN
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN EASTERN KS
AND COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. ANY SUNSHINE COULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. MUCH COOLER
FALL DAY ON TAP MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
STARK

ANY WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SOUTHWARD. WILL THEREFORE LIMIT A SLIGHT CHC
SHOWERS POP TO THE NORTHERN CWA. WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE CWA HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
40S.

AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT MORE TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...THE DRY
AIR BECOMES EVEN MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP A DRY
FCST GOING. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S DESPITE A COOL START TO THE DAY AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE CWA...NOW SEEN OFF THE WEST
COAST...WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MOISTURE PUSHED SOUTH
FROM EARLY WEEK STORM WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LLVL JET INCREASES WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER WAVE. HAVE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHC POP
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
INCREASES POPS AND QPF ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION. DECREASED
POPS INTO THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT KEPT LOW POPS
FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY AS A SECOND WAVE QUICKLY ADVANCES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY...OVERALL ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...

SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR 18Z TAF PERIOD. FIRST...TSRA JUST WEST OF MHK
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TAF SITE AFTER 20Z...AS DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
SHIFT EASTWARD. TSRA TO BEGIN TO AFFECT TOP/FOE AFTER 00Z. UNTIL
THAT POINT...WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT MORE GUSTY AT TOP/FOE
WITH A BIT OF SUN AND MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORE ROBUST
BKN035 AT MHK SHOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. WIND SHIFT FROM SE TO W
EXPECTED AFTER 05Z AT MHK...AND 09Z AT TOP/FOE. AFTER THAT...MAIN
CONCERN SHIFTS TO POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS/VIS. ATTM...PROLIFIC
STRATUS SHIELD EXPECTED OVER NE KS THROUGH 18Z. CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z AT TOP/FOE...BUT WILL LEAVE THE DECISION TO BRING
IN IFR CIGS TO LATER SHIFTS CLOSER TO POTENTIAL ONSET.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY NORTH OF A HERINGTON TO
SILVER LAKE TO LAWRENCE LINE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
312 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-152015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
312 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHCENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STORMS TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY
75 WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OVER AN INCH IN
DIAMETER AS WELL AS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

ADDITIONALLY THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER ONE LOCATION OR MOVE OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN...COULD CAUSE A FLASH FLOODING
HAZARD TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF A HERINGTON...SILVER LAKE TO LAWRENCE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING.

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SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
338 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

KSZ008-009-020-021-142120-
CLAY-CLOUD-REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-
338 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THROUGH 420 PM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST REPUBLIC...WESTERN
WASHINGTON...CLOUD AND NORTHERN CLAY COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS
NEAR 45 MPH. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
CLYDE...VINING...CLIFTON...AGENDA...PALMER...LINN...HADDAM...
WASHINGTON...MORROWVILLE AND HOLLENBURG.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THE STORM MAY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. BE READY TO TAKE SHELTER IN
CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
424 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

KSZ020-021-034-142200-
CLAY-CLOUD-OTTAWA-
424 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THROUGH 500 PM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CLOUD...CLAY AND NORTHERN OTTAWA
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE OAK HILL...NILTONVALE...IDANA AND MORGANVILLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THE STORM MAY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. BE READY TO TAKE SHELTER IN
CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
616 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW CARLTON            38.67N 97.32W
10/14/2007  M2.50 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE APPROXIMATELY 445 PM.

&&