River Flood Warning 23, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 150118
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
818 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN 
KANSAS...
 
  MILL CREEK AT WASHINGTON AFFECTING WASHINGTON COUNTY
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-150918-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-071017T0224Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071015T0703Z.071015T1800Z.071016T1424Z.NO/
818 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  4:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 28.0 FEET BY MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

KSC117-150918-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-071016T1400Z/
/FKFK1.1.ER.071013T2222Z.071015T1200Z.071016T0200Z.NO/
818 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT.
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 24.5 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER FLOODS.

$$

KSC201-150148-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-071016T0618Z/
/WSHK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
818 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MILL CREEK AT WASHINGTON.
* AT  8:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH A VALUE OF 
  13.4 FEET MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. 
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...OSAGE ROAD...LOCATED 2 MILES WEST AND 1 MILE
  NORTH OF WASHINGTON...FLOODS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
722 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CONCERN IS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS TODAY AND MOVE BACK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND FAR NORTHEAST KS. THE 09Z RUC AND 06Z NAM SHOW MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. RECENT
RAINS HAVE PRODUCE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH IN
ONE HOUR. THERE ARE ALSO LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS. BUT THINK AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL STAY WEST OF THIS
AREA. OPTED TO LEAVE THIS AREA OUT OF THE WATCH FOR NOW AND LET THE
DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

WOLTERS

.PREV DISCUSSION /358 AM CDT/...
CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE TO BE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST. THE
LOW LEVEL JET HAS ONCE AGAIN AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINNING TO ROTATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. DYNAMICS FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. WHILE
AN ISOLATED STORM COULD STILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...FEEL THREAT FOR
WIDE SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS DIMINISHING. THEREFORE WILL CANCEL THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702 WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. ADDITIONALLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHEER
WILL ALSO INCREASE. BECAUSE OF THIS THINK THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CAUSE AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST. CONSIDERED THE
NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT. WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...
SATURATED GROUNDS WOULD NOT NEED MUCH RAINFALL FOR THERE TO BE
PROBLEMS WITH RUNOFF. MAIN REASON FOR NOT ISSUING A WATCH ATTM WAS
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT AND THE DRY PUNCH MOVING
IN BEHIND IT. WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. STORMS
MAY BE MOVING ALONG FAST ENOUGH FOR RAIN AMOUNTS TO BE BETWEEN A
HALF AND ONE INCH. DAY SHIFT WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR A
FLOOD WATCH.

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. EVEN REMOVED POPS FROM TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR DRY
AIR TO MOVE IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING FOR
PRECIP LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE NEB STATE LINE MONDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE. BUT INCREASING STABILITY AND DECREASING VERTICAL
MOTION SUGGEST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP. INCREASED SKY COVER
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TOO WITH MODELS SHOWING STRATA CU HOLDING
TOUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. BECAUSE OF THIS MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT BOTTOM OUT COMPLETELY AND KEPT MINS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW RETURN FLOW REDEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
850 WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ADVECTING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
BACK NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEY ARE ALSO FAIRLY
SIMILAR IN TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE IF THIS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP GENERALLY TO THE LOWER
50S.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...
CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED TO BE VFR AS MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS
ELEVATED. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE WHEN TS MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES.
FORCING FOR CONVECTION MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KS. THIS WOULD PUT KMHK CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TS SEEM TO BE GENERATING JUST EAST OF KTOP AND
KFOE. ISENTROPIC SFC SHOW BETTER LIFT REMAINING JUST NORTH SO THINK
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING HERE. THINK THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL OCCUR AT KMHK BETWEEN
00Z AND 04Z WITH A FROPA AT KTOP AND KFOE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY WEST OF A LINE FROM
HERINGTON KS TO HIAWATHA KS.

&&

WOLTERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
511 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-151015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
511 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEY
ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH TO NEAR ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT...
BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING...THEN INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

ADDITIONALLY THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER ONE LOCATION OR MOVE OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN...COULD CAUSE A FLASH FLOODING
HAZARD TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.

WOLTERS

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
900 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

KSZ020-021-034-141445-
CLAY-CLOUD-OTTAWA-
900 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THROUGH 945 AM CDT...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE OAK HILL...MILTONVALE AND IDANA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES.

STARK