River Flood Warning 22, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 141921
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
221 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-150321-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0022.071014T2319Z-071018T0027Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071014T2319Z.071015T1200Z.071017T1227Z.NO/
221 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO WEDNESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 12:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 34.0 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

KSC117-150321-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-071016T1824Z/
/FKFK1.1.ER.071013T2222Z.071015T1800Z.071016T0624Z.NO/
221 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT.
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  2:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 25.0 FEET BY MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER FLOODS.

$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 150118
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
818 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN 
KANSAS...
 
  MILL CREEK AT WASHINGTON AFFECTING WASHINGTON COUNTY
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-150918-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-071017T0224Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071015T0703Z.071015T1800Z.071016T1424Z.NO/
818 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  4:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 28.0 FEET BY MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

KSC117-150918-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-071016T1400Z/
/FKFK1.1.ER.071013T2222Z.071015T1200Z.071016T0200Z.NO/
818 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT.
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 24.5 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER FLOODS.

$$

KSC201-150148-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-071016T0618Z/
/WSHK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
818 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MILL CREEK AT WASHINGTON.
* AT  8:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH A VALUE OF 
  13.4 FEET MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. 
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...OSAGE ROAD...LOCATED 2 MILES WEST AND 1 MILE
  NORTH OF WASHINGTON...FLOODS.

$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 150344
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1044 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-151144-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-071017T0045Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071015T0145Z.071015T1200Z.071016T1245Z.NO/
1044 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.0 FEET BY 
  MONDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

KSC117-151144-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-071016T2013Z/
/FKFK1.1.ER.071013T2222Z.071015T0600Z.071016T0813Z.NO/
1044 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT.
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 24.5 FEET BY 
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER FLOODS.

$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 150811
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
311 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS..
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  TURKEY CREEK NEAR SENECA 8NW AFFECTING NEMAHA COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-151611-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-071017T0045Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071015T0145Z.071015T1200Z.071016T1245Z.NO/
311 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 9:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.0 FEET BY THIS
  MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

KSC117-151611-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-071016T2013Z/
/FKFK1.1.ER.071013T2222Z.071016T0000Z.071016T0813Z.NO/
311 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT.
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 2:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 24.3 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER FLOODS.

$$

KSC131-151610-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-071016T0152Z/
/SNCK1.1.ER.071015T0536Z.071015T1200Z.071015T1352Z.NO/
311 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TURKEY CREEK NEAR SENECA 8NW.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 2:45 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.5 FEET BY THIS
  MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 23.5 FEET...FLOOD WATERS OVERSPREAD CULTIVATED FEILDS 
  FROM NEAR ST. BENEDICT TO THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE.

$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 151144
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
644 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-151944-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-071017T2332Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071015T0145Z.071016T0000Z.071017T1132Z.NO/
644 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  6:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 32.5 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

KSC117-151943-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-071016T2256Z/
/FKFK1.1.ER.071013T2222Z.071015T1800Z.071016T1056Z.NO/
644 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT.
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  6:16 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.6 FEET BY THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER FLOODS.

$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 151414
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
914 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-152214-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-071017T0630Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071015T0145Z.071015T1800Z.071016T1830Z.NO/
914 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS
* UNTIL TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 09 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS CRESTING...AND IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

KSC117-152214-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-071016T1920Z/
/FKFK1.1.ER.071013T2222Z.071015T1316Z.071016T0720Z.NO/
914 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT.
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:16 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS CRESTING...AND IS FORECAST TO FALL 
  TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER FLOODS.

$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 151626
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1126 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS..
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-160026-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-071017T0723Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071015T0145Z.071015T1800Z.071016T1923Z.NO/
1126 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 11:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 31.5 FEET THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY EARLY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 151659 CCA
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT ...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1126 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS..
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-160026-
/O.COR.KTOP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-071017T0723Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071015T0145Z.071015T1800Z.071016T1923Z.NO/
1126 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 11:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.90 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 31.5 FEET THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY EARLY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 152004
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
304 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS..
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  TURKEY CREEK NEAR SENECA 8NW AFFECTING NEMAHA COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-160404-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-071017T0148Z/
/FKFK1.2.ER.071013T2222Z.071015T1900Z.071016T1348Z.NO/
304 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT.
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  2:31 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS CRESTING AND IS FORECAST TO FALL TO BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 27.5 FEET...AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 19TH TERRACE AND 
  VISTA ROADS FLOODS.

$$

KSC131-160403-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-071016T1828Z/
/SNCK1.2.ER.071015T0536Z.071016T0000Z.071016T0628Z.NR/
304 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TURKEY CREEK NEAR SENECA 8NW.
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  2:45 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 23.5 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TUESDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 23.5 FEET...FLOOD WATERS OVERSPREAD CULTIVATED FIELDS 
  FROM NEAR ST. BENEDICT TO THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE.

$$

KSC117-160403-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-071017T0723Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071015T0145Z.071015T1700Z.071016T1923Z.NO/
304 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 12:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 31.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS CRESTING AND IS FORECAST TO FALL TO BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 152350
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
650 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-160750-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-071017T1032Z/
/FKFK1.2.ER.071013T2222Z.071015T2100Z.071016T2232Z.NO/
650 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  6:31 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 27.5 FEET...AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 19TH TERRACE AND 
  VISTA ROADS FLOODS.

$$

KSC117-160750-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-071017T0300Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071015T0145Z.071015T1700Z.071016T1500Z.NO/
650 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  4:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE TUESDAY MORNING.


$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 160206
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
906 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-161006-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-071017T0851Z/
/FKFK1.2.ER.071013T2222Z.071015T2100Z.071016T2051Z.NO/
906 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:46 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.6 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 27.5 FEET...AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 19TH TERRACE AND 
  VISTA ROADS FLOODS.

$$

KSC117-161005-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-071017T0206Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071015T0145Z.071015T1700Z.071016T1406Z.NO/
906 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE TUESDAY MORNING.


$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 160734
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
234 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS..
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-161534-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-071017T0206Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071015T0145Z.071015T1700Z.071016T1406Z.NO/
234 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 12:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

KSC117-161534-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-071017T0851Z/
/FKFK1.2.ER.071013T2222Z.071015T2100Z.071016T2051Z.NO/
234 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  2:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER FLOODS.

$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 161224
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
724 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS..
  BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-162024-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-071017T0219Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071015T0145Z.071015T1700Z.071016T1419Z.NO/
724 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  4:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

KSC117-162024-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-071017T0851Z/
/FKFK1.2.ER.071013T2222Z.071015T2100Z.071016T2051Z.NO/
724 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF LOWLAND AREAS OCCURS ALONG
  THE RIVER FROM VERMILLION TO THE MOUTH OF THE BLACK VERMILLION 
  RIVER.

$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 161358
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
858 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-162158-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-071017T0357Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071015T0145Z.071015T1700Z.071016T1557Z.NO/
858 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

KSC117-162158-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-071017T0707Z/
/FKFK1.2.ER.071013T2222Z.071015T2100Z.071016T1907Z.NO/
858 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF LOWLAND AREAS OCCURS ALONG
  THE RIVER FROM VERMILLION TO THE MOUTH OF THE BLACK VERMILLION 
  RIVER.

$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 161658
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1158 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN 
KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-161728-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-071017T0357Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.071015T0145Z.071015T1700Z.071016T1540Z.NO/
1158 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* AT 11:50 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.8 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 10:40 AM TUESDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 22.4 FEET BY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
722 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CONCERN IS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS TODAY AND MOVE BACK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND FAR NORTHEAST KS. THE 09Z RUC AND 06Z NAM SHOW MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. RECENT
RAINS HAVE PRODUCE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH IN
ONE HOUR. THERE ARE ALSO LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS. BUT THINK AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL STAY WEST OF THIS
AREA. OPTED TO LEAVE THIS AREA OUT OF THE WATCH FOR NOW AND LET THE
DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

WOLTERS

.PREV DISCUSSION /358 AM CDT/...
CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE TO BE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST. THE
LOW LEVEL JET HAS ONCE AGAIN AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINNING TO ROTATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. DYNAMICS FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. WHILE
AN ISOLATED STORM COULD STILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...FEEL THREAT FOR
WIDE SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS DIMINISHING. THEREFORE WILL CANCEL THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702 WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. ADDITIONALLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHEER
WILL ALSO INCREASE. BECAUSE OF THIS THINK THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CAUSE AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST. CONSIDERED THE
NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT. WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...
SATURATED GROUNDS WOULD NOT NEED MUCH RAINFALL FOR THERE TO BE
PROBLEMS WITH RUNOFF. MAIN REASON FOR NOT ISSUING A WATCH ATTM WAS
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT AND THE DRY PUNCH MOVING
IN BEHIND IT. WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. STORMS
MAY BE MOVING ALONG FAST ENOUGH FOR RAIN AMOUNTS TO BE BETWEEN A
HALF AND ONE INCH. DAY SHIFT WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR A
FLOOD WATCH.

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. EVEN REMOVED POPS FROM TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR DRY
AIR TO MOVE IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING FOR
PRECIP LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE NEB STATE LINE MONDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE. BUT INCREASING STABILITY AND DECREASING VERTICAL
MOTION SUGGEST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP. INCREASED SKY COVER
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TOO WITH MODELS SHOWING STRATA CU HOLDING
TOUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. BECAUSE OF THIS MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT BOTTOM OUT COMPLETELY AND KEPT MINS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW RETURN FLOW REDEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
850 WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ADVECTING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
BACK NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEY ARE ALSO FAIRLY
SIMILAR IN TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE IF THIS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP GENERALLY TO THE LOWER
50S.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...
CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED TO BE VFR AS MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS
ELEVATED. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE WHEN TS MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES.
FORCING FOR CONVECTION MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KS. THIS WOULD PUT KMHK CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TS SEEM TO BE GENERATING JUST EAST OF KTOP AND
KFOE. ISENTROPIC SFC SHOW BETTER LIFT REMAINING JUST NORTH SO THINK
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING HERE. THINK THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL OCCUR AT KMHK BETWEEN
00Z AND 04Z WITH A FROPA AT KTOP AND KFOE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY WEST OF A LINE FROM
HERINGTON KS TO HIAWATHA KS.

&&

WOLTERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
511 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-151015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
511 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEY
ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH TO NEAR ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT...
BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING...THEN INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

ADDITIONALLY THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER ONE LOCATION OR MOVE OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN...COULD CAUSE A FLASH FLOODING
HAZARD TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.

WOLTERS

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
900 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

KSZ020-021-034-141445-
CLAY-CLOUD-OTTAWA-
900 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THROUGH 945 AM CDT...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE OAK HILL...MILTONVALE AND IDANA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES.

STARK