Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007
Mesoscale Discussion 939
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 31, 2007, 6:38 PM CDT for 33 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 97 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 31, 2007, 6:38 PM CDT (23:38 UTC)
- Expired
- May 31, 2007, 8:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 97 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 33 counties
Barton County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Meade County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Morton County, KS, Ness County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Republic County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Trego County, KS
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 111 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -69 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1244 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 52 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 1 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 236 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 312338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312338 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-010115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0939 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007 AREAS AFFECTED...OK PANHANDLE...SW KS...CNTRL KS...NRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 312...313... VALID 312338Z - 010115Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 312...313...CONTINUES. A TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE AS SUPERCELLS MOVE INTO GREATER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS WCNTRL KS AND LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN KS ATTM. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SUPERCELL THREAT THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ACROSS SW KS WHERE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL KS INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 05/31/2007 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 39229688 37929868 36900053 36790170 37140207 37600201 38260104 38900007 39819833 39869741
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 12:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Ellis, Finney, Gove, Graham and 27 more | 87 min |
| May 31, 1:01 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Ellis, Finney, Gove, Graham and 20 more | 9 hr |
| May 31, 3:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche, Decatur and 48 more | 92 min |
| May 31, 3:29 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ford, Grant and 14 more | 7 hr |
| May 31, 5:20 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Marshall, Nemaha, Pottawatomie, Republic and 2 more | 6 hr |
| May 31, 6:50 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Comanche, Edwards, Ellsworth, Harper and 14 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.