Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007
Mesoscale Discussion 2003
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 21, 2007, 7:49 PM EDT for 7 counties in Michigan; 5 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 86 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 21, 2007, 7:49 PM EDT (23:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 21, 2007, 9:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 86 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Alger County, MI, Delta County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Luce County, MI, Mackinac County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Schoolcraft County, MI, Brown County, WI, Door County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI
The radar
The Marquette radar (KMQT), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 149 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -209 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1031 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 194 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 167 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.9
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 212349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212349 MIZ000-WIZ000-220115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WI/U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 679... VALID 212349Z - 220115Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 679 CONTINUES. REMAINING PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 679 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A NEW/REPLACEMENT WATCH IS LIKELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE U.P. OF MI WITHIN THE HOUR. IMMEDIATE PREFRONTAL/LEADING LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...AND A SMALLER/SECONDARY LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. OF MI AND NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STRONG AMBIENT SHEAR/EVOLUTION OF SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE SINCE MID AFTERNOON. WHILE A COOLER AIRMASS EXISTS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. OF MI...STRONG LINEAR FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS AND PRONOUNCED LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING...EVEN AMIDST LIMITED SURFACE BASED BUOYANCY. THUS...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH APPEARS LIKELY EAST OF 679 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE U.P. OF MI. ..GUYER.. 09/21/2007 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX... 46578729 46778533 46238436 45558571 43948703 43698774 43998823
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 7:04 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Gogebic, Keweenaw, Ontonagon | 5 hr |
| Sep 21, 11:24 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Menominee | 66 min |
| Sep 21, 2:34 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baraga, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Ontonagon | 116 min |
| Sep 21, 3:46 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Baraga, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw and 3 more | 8 hr |
| Sep 21, 12:09 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barron, Burnett, Chippewa, Clark, Dunn, Eau Claire and 9 more | 81 min |
| Sep 21, 12:13 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ashland, Bayfield, Burnett, Douglas, Iron, Price and 2 more | 7 hr |
| Sep 21, 4:08 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashland, Bayfield, Burnett, Douglas, Iron, Price and 2 more | 2 hr |
| Sep 21, 4:17 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crawford, Grant, Vernon | 88 min |
| Sep 21, 4:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Columbia, Crawford, Grant, Green Lake, Iowa, Lafayette and 4 more | 4 hr |
| Sep 21, 7:17 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Grant, Green, Iowa and 7 more | 88 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.