Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Springfield, MO

October 17, 2007Bourbon County, Kansas; Vernon County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 17, 2007, 4:56 PM CDT for Bourbon County, Kansas; Vernon County, Missouri. It was in force for 34 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 17, 2007, 4:56 PM CDT (21:56 UTC)
Expired: Oct 17, 2007, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 34 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Bourbon County, KS, Vernon County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 17, 10:43 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 389 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -89 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 632 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 195 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 218 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KSGF 172155
SVRSGF
KSC011-MOC217-172230-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0216.071017T2156Z-071017T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
456 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BOURBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  NORTHERN VERNON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT.

* AT 451 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR RICHARDS...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT
  SCOTT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  9 MILES NORTH OF WALKER BY 515 PM CDT.
  SCHELL CITY BY 525 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF METZ AND HORTON ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3804 9463 3807 9460 3807 9425 3806 9418
      3807 9413 3804 9408 3792 9408 3772 9458
      3804 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 248DEG 45KT 3794 9454

$$

ANGLE

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 172214
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
514 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSC011-172224-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0216.000000T0000Z-071017T2230Z/
BOURBON KS-
514 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BOURBON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS EXITED THE AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3807 9460 3807 9424 3806 9424 3807 9413
      3804 9408 3792 9408 3773 9459 3776 9461
      3803 9461 3804 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 248DEG 45KT 3802 9428

$$

MOC217-172230-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0216.000000T0000Z-071017T2230Z/
VERNON MO-
514 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN VERNON COUNTY...

AT 511 PM CDT...A A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED NEAR HORTON...OR
6 MILES SOUTH OF RICH HILL...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SCHELL CITY BY 525 PM CDT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3807 9460 3807 9424 3806 9424 3807 9413
      3804 9408 3792 9408 3773 9459 3776 9461
      3803 9461 3804 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 248DEG 45KT 3802 9428

$$

ANGLE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 17, 1:27 PM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 17, 1:27 PM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
127 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A GOOD BET LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY BEFORE 3 AM. THERMODYNAMICS REMAIN
VARIABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH INDICES ACTUALLY INCREASING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER TONIGHT...MUCH CALMER WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP...HOWEVER GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE ACROSS
WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEFORE NOON THURSDAY...THEN
REMAIN STREADY OR SLOWLY FALL AS CLOUD COVER AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OZARKS. THE EASTERN OZARKS
WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE A POCKET OF WARMER AIR WILL RESIDE THROUGH
THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM COOLER AIR TO MUCH
WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
92/85H WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE TEENS WHICH WILL PROVIDE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. SUNDAY MAY GET ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY BUT THIS DEPENDS UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE
MID/LONG TERM RANGE WHICH REMAINS A PROBLEM WITH TIMING AND THE
OVERALL EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN THE FAVORITE WITH THE MEAN
UPPER AIR FLOW...DIFFERENCES ARISE IN SURFACE
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD HPC
GUIDANCE...BUT HAVE SEVERAL CONCERNS WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
AND HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
ANYWAY...CONFIDENCE AFTER SUNDAY REMAINS VERY LOW WITH ANY ONE
SOLUTION.

JLT

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CEILINGS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS. BREAKS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND COULD START PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
THROUGH ABOUT 04-06Z AND ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS FROM ABOUT 20-08Z
WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AND NEAR STORMS. WITH THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WILL MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER
00Z.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO SGF

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 17, 12:23 PM CDT, 4 hours 33 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-181730-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1223 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR STRONG AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES...DAMAGING
 WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65
FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.

  DISCUSSION:

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PLAINS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE. THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW ROTATING
SUPERCELLS TO FORM ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAM ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE AREA. DISCRETE ROTATING SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAEDE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 17, 2:49 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S HARDING             37.96N 94.82W
10/17/2007  E60 MPH          BOURBON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUST ESTIMATED TO 60 MPH.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

Local storm report, Oct 17, 2:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW FORT SCOTT         37.88N 94.76W
10/17/2007  E60 MPH          BOURBON            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            50-60 MPH WINDS AND PENNY SIZED HAIL.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

Local storm report, Oct 17, 3:01 PM CDT, 1 hour 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 E UNIONTOWN           37.85N 94.96W
10/17/2007                   BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEMI-TRUCK BLOWN OFF ROAD.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

Local storm report, Oct 17, 3:03 PM CDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E UNIONTOWN           37.85N 94.96W
10/17/2007                   BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COR...SEMI-TRUCK BLOWN OFF ROAD.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 17, 1:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Bourbon, Crawford	56 min
Oct 17, 4:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Bourbon	25 min
Oct 17, 5:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Cherokee, Crawford	42 min
Oct 17, 3:22 AM CDT	Dense Fog Advisory	SGF	Dent, Douglas, Howell, Oregon, Ozark, Shannon and 1 more	3 hr
Oct 17, 2:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Vernon	37 min
Oct 17, 4:33 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	McDonald	42 min
Oct 17, 5:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Barry, Newton	36 min
Oct 17, 5:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Vernon	36 min
Oct 17, 5:34 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Lawrence	41 min
Oct 17, 5:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton	53 min
Oct 17, 6:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Cedar, St. Clair, Vernon	58 min
Oct 17, 6:03 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Christian, Greene	57 min
Oct 17, 6:08 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Barton, Cedar, Vernon	43 min
Oct 17, 6:38 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Polk	34 min
Oct 17, 6:39 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	St. Clair, Vernon	21 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2007 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.