Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Springfield, MO

October 17, 2007Cedar County, St. Clair County, Vernon County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 17, 2007, 6:02 PM CDT for Cedar County, St. Clair County, Vernon County, Missouri. It was in force for 58 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 17, 2007, 6:02 PM CDT (23:02 UTC)
Expired: Oct 17, 2007, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 58 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Cedar County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 17, 5:30 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 389 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -89 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 632 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 195 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 218 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KSGF 172302
SVRSGF
MOC039-185-217-180000-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0220.071017T2302Z-071018T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
602 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN VERNON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTHWESTERN CEDAR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

* AT 600 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR EL DORADO SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
  MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SCHELL CITY BY 610 PM CDT.
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF OSCEOLA BY 640 PM CDT.
  LOWRY CITY BY 645 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF TIFFIN...TABERVILLE...ROSCOE...MONEGAW SPRINGS AND
JOHNSON CITY ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3807 9415 3805 9408 3817 9408 3823 9404
      3822 9372 3812 9351 3808 9351 3777 9409
      3790 9425
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 228DEG 31KT 3790 9408

$$

ANGLE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 17, 1:27 PM CDT, 4 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 17, 1:27 PM CDT, 4 hours 35 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
127 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A GOOD BET LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY BEFORE 3 AM. THERMODYNAMICS REMAIN
VARIABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH INDICES ACTUALLY INCREASING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER TONIGHT...MUCH CALMER WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP...HOWEVER GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE ACROSS
WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEFORE NOON THURSDAY...THEN
REMAIN STREADY OR SLOWLY FALL AS CLOUD COVER AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OZARKS. THE EASTERN OZARKS
WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE A POCKET OF WARMER AIR WILL RESIDE THROUGH
THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM COOLER AIR TO MUCH
WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
92/85H WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE TEENS WHICH WILL PROVIDE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. SUNDAY MAY GET ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY BUT THIS DEPENDS UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE
MID/LONG TERM RANGE WHICH REMAINS A PROBLEM WITH TIMING AND THE
OVERALL EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN THE FAVORITE WITH THE MEAN
UPPER AIR FLOW...DIFFERENCES ARISE IN SURFACE
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD HPC
GUIDANCE...BUT HAVE SEVERAL CONCERNS WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
AND HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
ANYWAY...CONFIDENCE AFTER SUNDAY REMAINS VERY LOW WITH ANY ONE
SOLUTION.

JLT

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CEILINGS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS. BREAKS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND COULD START PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
THROUGH ABOUT 04-06Z AND ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS FROM ABOUT 20-08Z
WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AND NEAR STORMS. WITH THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WILL MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER
00Z.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO SGF

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 17, 12:23 PM CDT, 5 hours 39 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-181730-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1223 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR STRONG AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES...DAMAGING
 WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65
FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.

  DISCUSSION:

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PLAINS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE. THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW ROTATING
SUPERCELLS TO FORM ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAM ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE AREA. DISCRETE ROTATING SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAEDE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 17, 5:28 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
528 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W WEST MINERAL        37.28N  94.94W
10/17/2007                   CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00013

JSS

Local storm report, Oct 17, 5:31 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
531 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     WALL CLOUD       3 SW MONETT             36.89N  93.97W
10/17/2007                   BARRY              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00014

JSS

Local storm report, Oct 17, 5:39 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
539 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             MONETT                  36.92N  93.93W
10/17/2007  E1.00 INCH       BARRY              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00015

JSS

Special weather statement, Oct 17, 5:44 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
544 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

MOZ066-077-172315-
BARTON MO-VERNON MO-
544 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BARTON AND EXTREME SOUTHERN VERNON
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 540 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MINDENMINES...OR NEAR FRONTENAC...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LIBERAL BY 550 PM CDT.
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF VERDELLA BY 555 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF OSKALOOSA AND HANNON ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

WISE

Local storm report, Oct 17, 5:53 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TORNADO          2 N VERONA              36.99N  93.80W
10/17/2007                   LAWRENCE           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CONFIRMED TORNADO 1.5 MILES NORTH OF VERONA

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00016

JSS

Local storm report, Oct 17, 5:57 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     TORNADO          MOUNT VERNON            37.10N  93.82W
10/17/2007                   LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            DEBRIS IN THE AIR ON SOUTHWEST SIDE OF MOUNT VERNON

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00017

JSS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 17, 3:22 AM CDT	Dense Fog Advisory	SGF	Dent, Douglas, Howell, Oregon, Ozark, Shannon and 1 more	3 hr
Oct 17, 2:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Vernon	37 min
Oct 17, 4:33 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	McDonald	42 min
Oct 17, 4:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Vernon	34 min
Oct 17, 5:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Barry, Newton	36 min
Oct 17, 5:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Vernon	36 min
Oct 17, 5:34 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Lawrence	41 min
Oct 17, 5:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton	53 min
Oct 17, 6:03 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Christian, Greene	57 min
Oct 17, 6:08 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Barton, Cedar, Vernon	43 min
Oct 17, 6:38 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Polk	34 min
Oct 17, 6:39 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	St. Clair, Vernon	21 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.