Flash Flood Warning 223, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
712 AM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT UNDERWAY.

SFC COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE HAS MAINTAINED AN ELONGATED...ALTHOUGH NARROW...BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SALEM/ROUND SPRINGS WESTWARD THROUGH
SPRINGFIELD INTO JOPLIN AND POINTS SOUTHWESTWARD.

ALOFT...AN UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS IS PARALLEL AND
NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE STALLED SFC FRONT. UPPER
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...WITH AN ENHANCE AREA OF LIFT
POISED TO ENTER THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
COLDER CLOUD TOPS VIA IR SAT IMAGERY AND CONCENTRATION OF CG
LIGHTNING ENTERING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS A MAJOR CONCERN FOR PORTION
OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI ALREADY INUNDATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THUS FAR THIS MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATES MATCHING UP WITH INCOMING
RAINFALL REPORTS TO THIS POINT. WIDESPREAD TWO TO SIX INCHES OF
RAINFALL HAVE OCCURRED IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BARTON AND DADE...ALL
OF JASPER AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AS WELL AS MUCH OF GREENE COUNTY.
WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL ROUND OF RAIN POISED TO MOVE INTO THIS
AREA...IT WILL NOT BE UNHEARD OF TO SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL EXCEED
10 INCHES IN SEVERAL SPOTS.

A DANGEROUS FLOOD EVENT IS UNFOLDING WHICH WILL FEATURE BOTH FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...WELCOME RAINS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER THIS REGION. EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WILL POSE A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE MORE WATER
THAN ANY OTHER PART OF THE CWA.

A WET DAY INDEED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.

GAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/245 AM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007/

FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RECENT
HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED PERIODS OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE SATURATED SOIL...TOPOGRAPHY...HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN...MORE FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING
AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN THIS MORNING HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AN 850 MB
FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT HAS SLOWLY BEEN DRIFTING
NORTHWARD. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR ST LOUIS
TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD TO NEAR TULSA AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD. ALONG THIS FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING BUT THE MORE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT IN OKLAHOMA.

THE CHALLENGES WITH THE FORECAST ARE WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH. MODELS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL TODAY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUING NORTHWARD DRIFT OF THE 850
MB FRONT TO NEAR THE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA STATE LINE...PROVIDING
ANOTHER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP.

THE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FALLING IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE HIGH IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DUE TO THE
TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...OVERRUNNING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES...SATURATED SOILS AND
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE 850
MB FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH...DRY AND COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUT AN END TO THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 1200 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES
TO OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI ALONG A COLD FRONT. RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH
AIRFIELDS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR NEAR SUNRISE.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

GCC

&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...SEVERAL 24 HOUR RAINFALL
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BREAKING TODAY. BELOW ARE THOSE RECORDS
FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS.

LOCATION        RECORD      RECORD DATE

SPRINGFIELD     2.14 INCHES     1990
JOPLIN          3.31 INCHES     1992
WEST PLAINS     1.38 INCHES     1968
VICHY           1.92 INCHES     1903

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL NOON
SUNDAY.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
444 AM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090945-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
444 AM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND PRODUCE SEVERAL
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LAMAR TO OSAGE BEACH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

LOCATIONS ALONG THE ELK RIVER...SPRING RIVER...AND JAMES RIVER AND
SHOAL CREEK WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY.

LOCATIONS ALONG THE ELK RIVER...SPRING RIVER...JAMES RIVER AND
THE SHOAL CREEK WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING AS THE EXCESS RUNOFF
CONTINUES TO DRAIN.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF FLOODING AND
ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
507 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JOPLIN                  37.08N 94.51W
09/08/2007                   JASPER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            7TH AND MAIDEN...4TH AND TURK AND 7TH AND ILLINOIS CLOSED
            DUE TO FLOODING IN THE CITY

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
509 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
09/08/2007                   GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WEST BYPASS BETWEEN DIVISION AND CHESTNUT FLOODED WITH A
            FOOT OF WATER

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E CARTHAGE            37.18N 94.22W
09/08/2007                   JASPER             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            THE SPRING RIVER IS FLOODING OUT OF ITS BANKS AT COUNTY
            ROAD 90 JUST NORTH OF THE HARMONY RAILROAD CROSSING.

0545 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 E CARTHAGE            37.18N 94.20W
09/08/2007                   JASPER             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            HIGHWAY 96 IS CLOSED NEAR COUNTY ROAD 70.

0545 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CARTHAGE                37.18N 94.31W
09/08/2007  M3.14 INCH       JASPER             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            3.14 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
751 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E CARTHAGE            37.18N 94.22W
09/08/2007                   JASPER             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY 37 FROM ROUTE E TO ROUTE N IS CLOSED...INCLUDING
            A PORTION OF HIGHWAY 96...IS CLOSED.

0718 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W MOUNT VERNON        37.10N 93.91W
09/08/2007                   LAWRENCE           MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY 97 JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 TO ROUTE
            NN...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 96...IS CLOSED.

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 S LOCKWOOD           37.24N 93.95W
09/08/2007                   LAWRENCE           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VAN WASHED OFF THE ROAD WHERE WHITE OAK CREEK FLOODED
            HIGHWAY 97...WATER RESCUE PERFORMED...NO INJURIES.

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
809 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 AM     HEAVY RAIN       JOPLIN                  37.08N 94.51W
09/08/2007  M3.45 INCH       JASPER             MO   AIRPLANE PILOT

            3.45 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 700 AM IN
            DOWNTOWN JOPLIN

&&

GAGAN

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