Flash Flood Warning 218, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 AM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RECENT
HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED PERIODS OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE SATURATED SOIL...TOPOGRAPHY...HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN...MORE FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING
AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN THIS MORNING HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AN 850 MB
FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT HAS SLOWLY BEEN DRIFTING
NORTHWARD. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR ST LOUIS
TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD TO NEAR TULSA AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD. ALONG THIS FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING BUT THE MORE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT IN OKLAHOMA.

THE CHALLENGES WITH THE FORECAST ARE WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH. MODELS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL TODAY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUING NORTHWARD DRIFT OF THE 850
MB FRONT TO NEAR THE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA STATE LINE...PROVIDING
ANOTHER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP.

THE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FALLING IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE HIGH IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DUE TO THE
TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...OVERRUNNING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES...SATURATED SOILS AND
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE 850
MB FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH...DRY AND COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUT AN END TO THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 0600 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES
TO EVOLVE OVER NORTHEAST KS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL 850MB FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA OF
STORMS...AND WE SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SFC WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED 15 KTS AT
KSGF/KJLN...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY WELL MIXED...SO DECIDED
NOT INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ATTM. TAFS SHOULD START OUT FAIRLY
BENIGN/VFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT LOWER MVFR/LOW END VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD START TO AFFECT THE AREA BY FRI MORNING WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. PROGGED SOUNDINGS DONT FULLY SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS...SO AM RELUCTANT TO GO INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR ANY LENGTH
OF TIME FRI...BUT HEAVIER AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS
OF IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF RAIN FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FRONT BECOMING
STALLED OVER SOUTHERN MO/AR BORDER AREA. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL NOON
SUNDAY.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
900 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-081200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
900 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

...HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
BECAUSE OF A TROPICAL-LIKE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND MEANDER OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING
THE WEEKEND. AS TROPICAL MOISTURE OVERRIDES THE FRONT...SEVERAL
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE UP TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FOOT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

LOCATIONS ALONG THE ELK...SPRING...AND JAMES RIVERS AND SHOAL CREEK
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF FLOODING AND ROAD
CLOSURES.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY/DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
941 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ST. JAMES               38.00N 91.61W
09/07/2007                   PHELPS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CREEK IN ST. JAMES REPORTED OUT OF BANKS AND APPROACHING
            PROPERTIES. MULTIPLE LOW WATER CROSSINGS ACROSS PHELPS
            COUNTY REPORTED UNDER WATER AS WELL.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1010 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     FLOOD            HASTAIN                 38.21N 93.18W
09/07/2007                   BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO FEET OF WATER OVER ROAD AT DEER CREEK ON HASTAIN AVE.

&&

DSA