Flash Flood Warning 190, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 201403
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
859 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

MOC057-201500-
/X.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0190.000000T0000Z-070820T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DADE MO-
859 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN DADE COUNTY...

AT 856 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE WARNING AREA. 
HOWEVER...FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS MORNING FROM EARLIER 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DROPPED OVER FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS. 
 
LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT WATER WAS FLOWING OVER HIGHWAY 39 NEAR 
PENNSBORO. THE MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION IS EXPECTED TO  
CLOSE THIS ROAD. WATER WAS ALSO REPORTED OVER THE ROAD NEAR 
GREENFIELD OVER HIGHWAY 39. HIGHWAY K WEST OF EVERTON WAS ALSO 
REPORTED CLOSED. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE 
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3746 9363 3729 9364 3729 9409 3747 9408

$$
DSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ERIN FINALLY LEAVE THE OZARKS. SLIGHT CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL MCS TRACKING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE OZARKS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK AS
HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 90S. WILL THEN LOOK AT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE OZARKS LATE
THIS WEEK.

TODAY...A RECENT BLOSSOM IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES OVERNIGHT IS
LIKELY BEING AIDED BY A POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OWING TO A 40
TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN...AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE LEFT FROM ERIN
SHEARS EAST. THEREFORE THINK THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE
EARLY THIS MORNING. TROPICAL AIRMASS AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
STILL SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
JUST WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 15Z. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE WATCH...BUT AM NOT GOING TO GET TOO CUTE
RIGHT NOW. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM MAV
TEMPERATURES...BUT DID KNOCK THEM DOWN A BIT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI
WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUITE OVER MOST OF THE OZARKS. COULD
SEE A REMAINING SHOWER OR TWO UP TOWARDS VICHY THIS EVENING. A
LITTLE BIT OF CONCERN FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE TIGHT ENOUGH
TO KEEP WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE OVER MOST AREAS...WITH THE
ONE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY BEING SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. MAY SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT THINKING DENSE
FOG AT THIS TIME. EYES THEN TURN NORTH AS AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE UP IN THE CORN BELT. THIS MCS WOULD LIKELY TRACK
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET...NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI. PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR NOW
AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLOW HEIGHT RISES WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THAT MCS TUESDAY MORNING. VERY WELL POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE
SOME KIND OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO DEAL WITH LATER TUESDAY
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THINK CAP
WILL HOLD AND MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...DECENT CONVERGENCE
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOMETHING GOING.
KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS SPELL LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S FOR HIGHS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HEIGHTS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. THE PATTERN LOOKS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT A FRONT MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE OZARKS. TIME FRAME FOR A
FRONTAL PASSAGE RIGHT NOW IS SOMETIME ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE BRACKETED AROUND THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS STILL IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. WILL THEN
NEED TO SEE WHERE THAT FRONT ENDS UP NEXT WEEKEND TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...BANDS OF SHRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION. BETTER COVERAGE HAS DEVELOP DURING THE PAST HOUR NEAR
THE MO/KS BORDER AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE JLN AND SGF AERODROMES WILL EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL BOUTS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN MVFR/IFR CIG
AND VIS. THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
BUT DELIBERATELY SPREAD TO THE EAST AND CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
     068>070-078>081-088>095-101>104.

KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
556 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-211200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
556 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
  ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
  WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
  AND THIS AFTERNOON.

  HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING
  FROM CARTHAGE TO SPRINGFIELD. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
  ALONG THE REST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
  MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST
  OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO
  60 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

  A DECAYING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT AREAS
  NORTH OF A FORT SCOTT TO VICHY LINE LATE TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS
  TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
  SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON FRIDAY
  OR SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN 100 DEGREES WILL BE
  POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
  AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE
  FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO LOCAL
  LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
  SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
542 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      AVILLA                  37.20N 94.13W
08/20/2007                   JASPER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ON HIGHWAY 96...WATER WAS 2 FEET DEEP OVER THE ROAD FOR A
            LENGTH OF ABOUT 50 YARDS.

&&

MTERRY