Flash Flood Warning 188, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ERIN FINALLY LEAVE THE OZARKS. SLIGHT CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL MCS TRACKING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE OZARKS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK AS
HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 90S. WILL THEN LOOK AT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE OZARKS LATE
THIS WEEK.

TODAY...A RECENT BLOSSOM IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES OVERNIGHT IS
LIKELY BEING AIDED BY A POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OWING TO A 40
TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN...AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE LEFT FROM ERIN
SHEARS EAST. THEREFORE THINK THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE
EARLY THIS MORNING. TROPICAL AIRMASS AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
STILL SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
JUST WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 15Z. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE WATCH...BUT AM NOT GOING TO GET TOO CUTE
RIGHT NOW. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM MAV
TEMPERATURES...BUT DID KNOCK THEM DOWN A BIT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI
WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUITE OVER MOST OF THE OZARKS. COULD
SEE A REMAINING SHOWER OR TWO UP TOWARDS VICHY THIS EVENING. A
LITTLE BIT OF CONCERN FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE TIGHT ENOUGH
TO KEEP WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE OVER MOST AREAS...WITH THE
ONE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY BEING SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. MAY SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT THINKING DENSE
FOG AT THIS TIME. EYES THEN TURN NORTH AS AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE UP IN THE CORN BELT. THIS MCS WOULD LIKELY TRACK
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET...NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI. PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR NOW
AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLOW HEIGHT RISES WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THAT MCS TUESDAY MORNING. VERY WELL POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE
SOME KIND OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO DEAL WITH LATER TUESDAY
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THINK CAP
WILL HOLD AND MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...DECENT CONVERGENCE
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOMETHING GOING.
KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS SPELL LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S FOR HIGHS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HEIGHTS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. THE PATTERN LOOKS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT A FRONT MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE OZARKS. TIME FRAME FOR A
FRONTAL PASSAGE RIGHT NOW IS SOMETIME ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE BRACKETED AROUND THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS STILL IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. WILL THEN
NEED TO SEE WHERE THAT FRONT ENDS UP NEXT WEEKEND TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...BANDS OF SHRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION. BETTER COVERAGE HAS DEVELOP DURING THE PAST HOUR NEAR
THE MO/KS BORDER AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE JLN AND SGF AERODROMES WILL EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL BOUTS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN MVFR/IFR CIG
AND VIS. THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
BUT DELIBERATELY SPREAD TO THE EAST AND CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
     068>070-078>081-088>095-101>104.

KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
759 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-210100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
759 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
 AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN MOVE
 ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION.

 LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
 HOWEVER WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
 STORMS.

 LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
 OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
 THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
 PERIODS...WHEN MAXIMUM ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DUE
 TO DAYTIME HEATING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH
 A FEW MICROBURSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

 AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN 100 DEGREES WILL BE
 POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
 AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE
 FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO LOCAL LAW
 ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD
 MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN