Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Raleigh, NC

000 
WWUS52 KRAH 271915
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
314 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCC185-271930-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0209.000000T0000Z-070727T1930Z/
WARREN NC-
314 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR WARREN COUNTY...

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
WARRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 
LOCATED 1 MILE NORTH OF MACON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE... WISE...MACON AND 
LAKE GASTON.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3625 7806 3628 7822 3632 7828 3654 7831
      3654 7831 3655 7798 3654 7796 3638 7794
      3623 7801

$$

MWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM TO OUR
WEST SATURDAY AND DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY... BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AND GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE COLUMN HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO HIGHLY UNSTABLE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC WITH SURFACE CAPES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG
ACCORDING TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTERS MESOANALYSIS PAGE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR HAS BEEN SCANT...JUST AROUND 10 KTS... BUT THE DIFFLUENT
925 MB FLOW FROM EARLIER HAS BECOME CONFLUENT OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN... FACILITATING THE RECENT RAPID BLOWUP IN CONVECTION HERE.
WILL GO WITH 30-45% POPS... HIGHER IN THE NORTHWEST AND COASTAL
PLAIN... THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE INSTABILITY AS HIGH AS IT IS
AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11/-12... CELLS COULD PRODUCE DOWNBURST
WINDS OR HAIL UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNSET... WHEN THE COLUMN SHOULD BEGIN
TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOWS 67-72 WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY EVERYWHERE AS UPSTREAM MID CLOUDS ADVECT INTO
THE AREA. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS IT SLOWS... ALTHOUGH THE VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD BE
WANING WITH THE WEAKENING FLOW AND SLIGHTLY DAMPENING WAVE.
NEVERTHELESS... THIS FORCING SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE. INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE LOWER
THAN TODAY HOWEVER WITH 500 MB TEMPS A GOOD 5C WARMER THAN TODAY...
YET MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. HAVE GONE WITH 30-50% POP...
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN CWA AND COASTAL PLAIN... WHERE THE SREF SHOWS
A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIGHS 87-92... WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

PRECIP CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY...
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY EXCEED 2
INCHES... AND AS THE SHORTWAVE PRESSING ALONG THE ND/CANADA BORDER
DROPS INTO THE TROUGH BASE... WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED LARGE SCALE
LIFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
BECOMES MORE DEFINED OVER EASTERN TN AND SLOGS EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT... ASSURING A STEADY SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LOW
END LIKELY IN THE WEST AND HIGH CHANCE EAST... WITH THE LIKELY POPS
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD INTO MONDAY... WHERE THE GFS GENERATES
ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE LIFT VIA UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET TO OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WEAK STEERING
AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE... SOME HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG AND
WITH THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL... WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIE OVER EASTERN NC MONDAY NIGHT
BUT WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL SETTLED JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER JET CORE WILL BE
OVERHEAD... CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXTEND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW EASTWARD SHIFT OR IF IT WILL HOLD OVER OR NEAR OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 00Z/27 GFS HAD A MORE WEST POSITION
BUT THE 06Z/27 GFS AND 00Z/27 ECMWF NUDGE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EASTWARD JUST ENOUGH TO KICK THE FRONT JUST OFF THE NC COAST. TO
CAPTURE THIS BIT OF UNCERTAINTY... HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE KEPT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LESSER SKY COVER
AND NO POPS WESTWARD... AS THE ECMWF SURFACE FLOW IS SLIGHTLY
DIFFLUENT HERE WITH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE NOTED ON THE GFS. THE WEAK
BUT PERSISTENT MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SITS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS DO START A SLOW RISE BY THURSDAY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO NC SHOULD KEEP
AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS COULD SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITHIN THE NOSE OF
THE SURFACE HIGH WITH AN UP-TERRAIN AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT... AND
THIS RELATIVELY COOL STABLE POOL COULD BE ENHANCED IF THE GFS ENDS
UP CORRECT WITH ITS FRONTAL LOW TRACKING OFF THE NC COAST MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE GFSS FRONTAL PUSH BACK
ONSHORE AND ENSUING RAIN OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY IS FAR FROM A
SURE THING... BUT WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD WEST A
BIT INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... WILL THROW IN A CHANCE POP
MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR NORMAL SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY... SLOWLY RISING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL EVERYWHERE BY
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT KICKS BACK NORTHWEST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS EACH MORNING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS NEAR DAYBREAK. -RHJ

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...RHJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-280915-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
157 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ011-271900-
HALIFAX-
157 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS HALIFAX COUNTY THROUGH 300
PM EDT...

AT 157 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GLENVIEW...OR ABOUT 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE INTERSTATE NINETY FIVE
CORRIDOR... HALIFAX... AND AIRLIE.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE
WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS. LIGHT OBJECTS
SUCH AS TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND AWNINGS COULD
BE TOSSED AROUND.

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
158 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ043-078-271845-
WAYNE-WILSON-
158 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WILSON AND
NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 158 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NAHUNTA...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF GOLDSBORO...MOVING SLOWLY
EAST.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO NOT USE THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE GOOD SHELTER.

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
218 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ009-271915-
VANCE-
218 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS VANCE COUNTY THROUGH 315 PM
EDT...

AT 218 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
DABNEY...OR ABOUT OVER HENDERSON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR MIDDLEBURG AROUND 250 PM EDT...
BULLOCKSVILLE AROUND 255 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. THESE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS.
LIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE
AND AWNINGS COULD BE TOSSED AROUND.

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
227 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             PIKEVILLE               35.50N 77.98W
07/27/2007  E0.75 INCH       WAYNE              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL A LITTLE LARGER THAN A PENNY WAS REPORTED NEAR
            PIKEVILLE

&&

RHJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
231 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     HAIL             LILESVILLE              34.97N 79.99W
07/27/2007  E1.00 INCH       ANSON              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE REPORTED NEAR LILESVILLE

&&

RHJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ042-077-271915-
HARNETT-JOHNSTON-
235 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS JOHNSTON AND EASTERN HARNETT
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 235 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ERWIN...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LILLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR DUNN AROUND 240 PM EDT...COATS
AROUND 250 PM EDT...BENSON AROUND 305 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

DONT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. INSTEAD...MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES
OR THE FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY
FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

WSS