Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Raleigh, NC

000 
WWUS52 KRAH 271808
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
207 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCC069-271817-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0199.000000T0000Z-070727T1815Z/
FRANKLIN NC-
207 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 215 PM EDT...

AT 201 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES WEST OF 
FRANKLINTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. PENNY SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING 
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3589 7831 3589 7833 3598 7843 3599 7847
      3602 7846 3613 7808 3612 7807 3590 7821
      3586 7823 3587 7827

$$

MWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1046 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY... AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEBRIS FROM DYING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS WILL
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR OVER
THE REGION... SO THE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. MORNING
TEMPERATURE SCHEMES RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 92 TO 93 DEGREE RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA... SO ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THE
PRESENT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALIGNS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES DURING THE
PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW...MANY
OF WHICH LACK CONTINUITY AND APPEAR SPURIOUS AT TIMES. MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE COLUMN WITH P-WATER STEPPING UP EACH DAY TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION
AT ALMOST ANY TIME GIVEN A BIG ENOUGH PUSH. BUT EXCEPT FOR AN
EXPECTED DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN COVERAGE... TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT RANDOM. POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS ACHIEVES A STEADY
STATE THICKNESS PATTERN THAT FAVORS MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 OR LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS SHOW A SHARPENING TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
REGION BY MONDAY. SURFACE FEATURES CONTINUE TO VARY WITH REGARD TO
POSITIONING OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
BUT ALL TEND TO SUGGEST A REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS SUN NIGHT AND MON. THE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE NUDGED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY TUE...BECOMING
STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MAY
RESULT A SCATTERING OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUE THROUGH THU.
BUT CHANCES APPEAR LESS THAN ON MON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z SAT. SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH JUST AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A TSTM.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS EACH MORNING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS NEAR DAYBREAK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RHJ
NEAR TERM...RHJ
SHORT TERM...RFG
LONG TERM...RFG
AVIATION...JFB/RHJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-280915-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
131 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ026-027-271830-
FRANKLIN-NASH-
131 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS FRANKLIN AND NASH COUNTIES
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 131 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES
WEST OF BUNN...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTH OF LOUISBURG...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PILOT...BUNN...SPRING
HOPE.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORMS.

MWS