Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1046 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY... AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEBRIS FROM DYING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS WILL
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR OVER
THE REGION... SO THE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. MORNING
TEMPERATURE SCHEMES RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 92 TO 93 DEGREE RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA... SO ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THE
PRESENT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALIGNS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES DURING THE
PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW...MANY
OF WHICH LACK CONTINUITY AND APPEAR SPURIOUS AT TIMES. MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE COLUMN WITH P-WATER STEPPING UP EACH DAY TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION
AT ALMOST ANY TIME GIVEN A BIG ENOUGH PUSH. BUT EXCEPT FOR AN
EXPECTED DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN COVERAGE... TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT RANDOM. POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS ACHIEVES A STEADY
STATE THICKNESS PATTERN THAT FAVORS MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 OR LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS SHOW A SHARPENING TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
REGION BY MONDAY. SURFACE FEATURES CONTINUE TO VARY WITH REGARD TO
POSITIONING OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
BUT ALL TEND TO SUGGEST A REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS SUN NIGHT AND MON. THE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE NUDGED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY TUE...BECOMING
STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MAY
RESULT A SCATTERING OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUE THROUGH THU.
BUT CHANCES APPEAR LESS THAN ON MON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z SAT. SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH JUST AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A TSTM.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS EACH MORNING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS NEAR DAYBREAK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RHJ
NEAR TERM...RHJ
SHORT TERM...RFG
LONG TERM...RFG
AVIATION...JFB/RHJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-280915-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
131 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ026-027-271830-
FRANKLIN-NASH-
131 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS FRANKLIN AND NASH COUNTIES
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 131 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES
WEST OF BUNN...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTH OF LOUISBURG...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PILOT...BUNN...SPRING
HOPE.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORMS.

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
141 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ010-011-271830-
HALIFAX-WARREN-
141 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WARREN AND HALIFAX
COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 141 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
LAKE GASTON...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF WARRENTON...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHERN...RURAL
HALIFAX AND WARREN COUNTIES.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
153 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ078-271900-
WAYNE-
153 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 153 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NAHUNTA...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF GOLDSBORO...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR PIKEVILLE AROUND 205 PM EDT...
FREMONT AROUND 210 PM EDT...EUREKA AROUND 240 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE
WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS. LIGHT OBJECTS
SUCH AS TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND AWNINGS COULD
BE TOSSED AROUND.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO NOT USE THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE GOOD SHELTER.

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
157 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ011-271900-
HALIFAX-
157 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS HALIFAX COUNTY THROUGH 300
PM EDT...

AT 157 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GLENVIEW...OR ABOUT 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE INTERSTATE NINETY FIVE
CORRIDOR... HALIFAX... AND AIRLIE.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE
WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS. LIGHT OBJECTS
SUCH AS TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND AWNINGS COULD
BE TOSSED AROUND.

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
158 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

NCZ043-078-271845-
WAYNE-WILSON-
158 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WILSON AND
NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 158 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NAHUNTA...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF GOLDSBORO...MOVING SLOWLY
EAST.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO NOT USE THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE GOOD SHELTER.

WSS