Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED WX PATTERN TO EVOLVE OVER THE FA IN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER AZ IX MOVING EWD THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD TSTMS...WITH A FEW PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK IN WAA PATTERN ABOVE REL
COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SFC
LOW TRACKING EWD VCNTY OF THE RED RIVER TODAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO WEST TX. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE IN SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW AND WARM
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RED RIVER BY AFTN... WITH THREAT
OF ELEVATED HAILERS EXTENDING NWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE FA.  IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WX THREAT...WINTER WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT. RAIN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT IN NWRN OK AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NEWD AND COLDER
LOW LEVEL AIR SURGES SWD DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS.  ALTHOUGH GROUND
TEMPS ARE REL WARM... SNOW COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE NW OVERNIGHT. INCREASING NLY WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRFTING SNOW.  WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE SNOW ADVY FOR THE
NW FOR TONIGHT.  SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY SAT WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE MORNING ACROSS NERN PARTS OF
THE FA. ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF
THE CURRENT ONE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS LOW LVL RDG
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF...BUT SLY LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY
AND WILL INTRO LOW POPS IN THE WEST LATE MONDAY THEN SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDR OF THE FA TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  52  40  53  35 / 100  70  30   0
HOBART OK         54  36  54  33 /  90  40  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  43  57  38 /  80  30  10   0
GAGE OK           45  31  51  30 / 100  90  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  49  31 / 100  90  30   0
DURANT OK         63  46  54  41 /  90  80  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ004>006-009-010.

TX...NONE.
&&

22/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
405 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE TO WATONGA TO
CHANDLER IN OKLAHOMA...AND INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 7 AM...AND WILL
INCREASE IN NUMBER DURING THE DAY...FINALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS
EVENING.

IMPACTS...
NUMEROUS STORMS THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...ROOFTOPS...AND
TENDER VEGETATION. ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS...WHICH MAY CAUSE MODERATE
DAMAGE...INCLUDING BROKEN GLASS ON AUTOMOBILES AND BUILDINGS.

STORMS IN TEXAS AND ALONG THE RED RIVER IN OKLAHOMA MAY PRODUCE A
FEW VIOLENT THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH. THESE WIND SPEEDS CAN
TOPPLE MOBILE HOMES...AND DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 7 AM UNTIL
10 PM.

DISCUSSION...
AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY...ANCHORED BY A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM NEAR EL PASO
TEXAS THIS MORNING TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A BROAD LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY BRING MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS
PROVIDE LIFT FOR NEARLY CONTINUOUS DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED
ABOVE A LAYER OF STABLE COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...MEANING THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. WIND SHEAR
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH MAY
PRODUCE HAIL AROUND GOLF BALL SIZE.

A CHANCE FOR EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MANGUM TO DUNCAN TO ATOKA. THE WARM
FRONT MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...AND
WILL BE LOCATED CLOSE TO THE EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL MAXIMIZE THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...AND BRING STORM BASES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE.
STORMS IN THIS REGION COULD PRODUCE HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF
BALLS...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE GROUND SUGGESTS THAT ONE OR TWO STRONG
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY APR 14.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA. A SNOW
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS
PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE LATE TO RETURN...BUT WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

BURKE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
331 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

OKZ024-130845-
CANADIAN OK-
331 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CANADIAN COUNTY.

AT 331 AM...A MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DIME TO NICKEL
SIZE HAIL WAS NEAR HINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CANADIAN
COUNTY THROUGH 4 AM...WITH PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL EXPECTED.

PEOPLE IN CANADIAN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

OKZ033-TXZ083-130900-
HARMON OK-HARDEMAN TX-
349 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARDEMAN AND HARMON
COUNTIES.

AT 349 AM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ACROSS CHILDRESS
COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY...AND
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN HARDEMAN AND HARMON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
359 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

OKZ034-130915-
GREER OK-
359 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GREER COUNTY.

AT 359 AM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF
GREER COUNTY...TO NEAR MANGUM AND HESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH. SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY.

PEOPLE IN GREER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
410 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

OKZ022-033>036-TXZ083-130945-
WASHITA OK-JACKSON OK-KIOWA OK-GREER OK-HARMON OK-HARDEMAN TX-
410 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GREER...HARDEMAN...HARMON...
JACKSON...KIOWA AND WASHITA COUNTIES.

AT 410 AM...CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING FROM
NEAR CHILDRESS AND HOLLIS...TO NEAR WILLOW AND HOBART...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL BE COMMON WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN GREER...HARDEMAN...HARMON...JACKSON...KIOWA AND WASHITA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF HOBART...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JAMES