Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED WX PATTERN TO EVOLVE OVER THE FA IN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER AZ IX MOVING EWD THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD TSTMS...WITH A FEW PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK IN WAA PATTERN ABOVE REL
COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SFC
LOW TRACKING EWD VCNTY OF THE RED RIVER TODAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO WEST TX. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE IN SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW AND WARM
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RED RIVER BY AFTN... WITH THREAT
OF ELEVATED HAILERS EXTENDING NWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE FA.  IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WX THREAT...WINTER WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT. RAIN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT IN NWRN OK AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NEWD AND COLDER
LOW LEVEL AIR SURGES SWD DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS.  ALTHOUGH GROUND
TEMPS ARE REL WARM... SNOW COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE NW OVERNIGHT. INCREASING NLY WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRFTING SNOW.  WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE SNOW ADVY FOR THE
NW FOR TONIGHT.  SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY SAT WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE MORNING ACROSS NERN PARTS OF
THE FA. ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF
THE CURRENT ONE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS LOW LVL RDG
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF...BUT SLY LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY
AND WILL INTRO LOW POPS IN THE WEST LATE MONDAY THEN SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDR OF THE FA TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  52  40  53  35 / 100  70  30   0
HOBART OK         54  36  54  33 /  90  40  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  43  57  38 /  80  30  10   0
GAGE OK           45  31  51  30 / 100  90  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  49  31 / 100  90  30   0
DURANT OK         63  46  54  41 /  90  80  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ004>006-009-010.

TX...NONE.
&&

22/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
730 PM CDT THU APR 12 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
730 PM CDT THU APR 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
WEST OF A LINE FROM FREEDOM... TO WATONGA...TO WAURIKA...AND
INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
MOST LIKELY AFTER 9 PM.

IMPACTS...
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...WITH WINDS TO 65 MPH A
SECONDARY HAZARD.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
NONE.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR
TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 65 MPH. AVERAGE MOVEMENT
WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY APR 13.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LIGHTNING MAY BE UNUSUALLY FREQUENT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD MAY BE
ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH THESE
STORMS WEAKENING BY MIDDAY.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS RESUME LATER IN THE DAY WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AS A
SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SNOW LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

JAMES

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
331 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

OKZ024-130845-
CANADIAN OK-
331 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CANADIAN COUNTY.

AT 331 AM...A MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DIME TO NICKEL
SIZE HAIL WAS NEAR HINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CANADIAN
COUNTY THROUGH 4 AM...WITH PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL EXPECTED.

PEOPLE IN CANADIAN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

OKZ033-TXZ083-130900-
HARMON OK-HARDEMAN TX-
349 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARDEMAN AND HARMON
COUNTIES.

AT 349 AM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ACROSS CHILDRESS
COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY...AND
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN HARDEMAN AND HARMON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JAMES