Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM HOLLIS TO CLINTON AND CHEROKEE.  THIS INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS HAVE SOMEWHAT STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE THE
PAST FEW DAYS...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY WILL STILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BUT GREATER LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM
WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY STILL ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR STRONG AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SATURATED SOILS
IS EXPECTED TO BE A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD PROBLEM. MANY RIVERS AND
LOW-LYING AREAS ARE ALREADY IN A STATE OF FLOODING AND ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER
TO FLOOD RELATED PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A SLOW EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE SATURATED GROUND ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
PROVIDE FOR AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

11

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