Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
343 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A LARGE PART OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FIRST AND FOREMOST... CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... AS
WELL AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS JUST SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER TOWARD THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND WEST
TOWARD ABILENE. MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS
OCCURRED NEAR THIS REGION... WITH THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF ABILENE TEXAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO BECOME SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING.

SECONDLY... WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLOODING WITH
PRECIPITATION THAT FELL EARLIER TODAY... WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVE THAT
HELPED PRECIPITATION EARLY TODAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...
TAKING PRECIPITATION WITH IT. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOW MOVING THROUGH
WEST TEXAS ATTM... WITH A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
MOVING EAST TOWARD WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS
AREA OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD GET CRANKING
TONIGHT AND HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS WHAT EFFECT SQUALL LINE
LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL HAVE ON RAINFALL
INTENSITIES/TOTALS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT AFFECTS
OF LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN TEXAS... WHICH WOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT. ALL MODELS CRANK
OUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA BY
TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TOTALS MAY NOT
GET AS HIGH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST... THINK THAT RAINFALL IS ALL
BUT A GIVEN. GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING... COMBINED WITH WHAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS... ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE
THE FLOODING SITUATION. IF RAINFALL TOTALS DUE OCCUR AS
FORECAST... ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MODELS BRING THE LOW ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL TOTALS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY EXCEED TWO TO FOUR MORE INCHES
OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS... AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTH. WITH ALL OF THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED... A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR ALL BUT NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY THE WEEKEND... WITH PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLY COMING BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  72  59  76 /  70  50  50  40
HOBART OK         60  74  58  79 /  70  50  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  72  60  76 /  80  60  70  40
GAGE OK           54  77  54  79 /  50  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  74  58  76 /  70  40  30  40
DURANT OK         64  75  61  74 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ019-020-023>032-
     037>048-050>052.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-011>018-021-
     022-033>036.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ085>090.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083-084.

&&

24/TY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
755 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
755 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ARCHER CITY...TO HOBART...
TO KINGFISHER...AND STILLWATER.

TIMING...
THIS EVENING.

IMPACTS...
TORNADOES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS...AND FLOODING RAIN.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD OPERATIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE RISK AREA THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...WITH MORE RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE SQUALL
LINE AND POSSIBLY MORE STORMS TOWARD MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MAY 9.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH TONIGHT.  PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD RELATED PRODUCTS FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST... A CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE WEEKEND WILL BE FREE OF STORMS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE SATURATED GROUND ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE-44.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
703 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

TXZ085-086-088-089-090015-
WILBARGER TX-WICHITA TX-ARCHER TX-BAYLOR TX-
703 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ARCHER...BAYLOR...WICHITA
AND WILBARGER COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LAKE KEMP TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARCHER CITY AT 703 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL... WINDS AROUND 50 MPH... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN ARCHER...BAYLOR...WICHITA AND WILBARGER COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
716 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

OKZ023-035-090030-
CADDO OK-KIOWA OK-
716 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR SOUTHERN CADDO AND
NORTHEAST KIOWA COUNTIES.

A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 38 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CARNEGIE AT 716 PM CDT. THE STORM WAS MVOING NORTH AT
15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CADDO AND KIOWA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
757 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

OKZ037-044-090115-
COTTON OK-TILLMAN OK-
757 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COTTON AND TILLMAN COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRANDFIELD TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF RANDLETT AT 757 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN COTTON AND TILLMAN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
802 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

TXZ090-090130-
CLAY TX-
802 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLAY COUNTY.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CHARLIE TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF BUFFALO SPRINGS AT 802 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN CLAY COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

..SPEG.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
813 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

OKZ023-090130-
CADDO OK-
813 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
WEST OF LAKE ELLSWORTH AT 813 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CADDO COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
821 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

OKZ044-045-090130-
COTTON OK-JEFFERSON OK-
821 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COTTON AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
COOKIETOWN TO 7 MILES WEST OF RYAN AT 821 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN COTTON AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

30