Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
343 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A LARGE PART OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FIRST AND FOREMOST... CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... AS
WELL AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS JUST SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER TOWARD THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND WEST
TOWARD ABILENE. MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS
OCCURRED NEAR THIS REGION... WITH THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF ABILENE TEXAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO BECOME SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING.

SECONDLY... WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLOODING WITH
PRECIPITATION THAT FELL EARLIER TODAY... WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVE THAT
HELPED PRECIPITATION EARLY TODAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...
TAKING PRECIPITATION WITH IT. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOW MOVING THROUGH
WEST TEXAS ATTM... WITH A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
MOVING EAST TOWARD WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS
AREA OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD GET CRANKING
TONIGHT AND HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS WHAT EFFECT SQUALL LINE
LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL HAVE ON RAINFALL
INTENSITIES/TOTALS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT AFFECTS
OF LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN TEXAS... WHICH WOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT. ALL MODELS CRANK
OUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA BY
TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TOTALS MAY NOT
GET AS HIGH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST... THINK THAT RAINFALL IS ALL
BUT A GIVEN. GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING... COMBINED WITH WHAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS... ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE
THE FLOODING SITUATION. IF RAINFALL TOTALS DUE OCCUR AS
FORECAST... ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MODELS BRING THE LOW ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL TOTALS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY EXCEED TWO TO FOUR MORE INCHES
OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS... AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTH. WITH ALL OF THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED... A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR ALL BUT NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY THE WEEKEND... WITH PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLY COMING BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  72  59  76 /  70  50  50  40
HOBART OK         60  74  58  79 /  70  50  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  72  60  76 /  80  60  70  40
GAGE OK           54  77  54  79 /  50  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  74  58  76 /  70  40  30  40
DURANT OK         64  75  61  74 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ019-020-023>032-
     037>048-050>052.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-011>018-021-
     022-033>036.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ085>090.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083-084.

&&

24/TY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 PM CDT TUE MAY 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      APACHE                  34.89N 98.36W
05/08/2007                   CADDO              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            STREET FLOODING IN APACHE

&&

DW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1112 PM CDT TUE MAY 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TORNADO          3 W LAKE ELLSWORTH      34.83N 98.41W
05/08/2007                   COMANCHE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BRIEF TORNADO REPORTED BY KWTB STORM CHASER.

0818 PM     TORNADO          3 W LAKE ELLSWORTH      34.83N 98.41W
05/08/2007                   COMANCHE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ANOTHER BRIEF TORNADO REPORTED BY KWTB STORM CHASER.

&&

KJ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 WNW EL RENO           35.56N 98.04W
05/09/2007  M65 MPH          CANADIAN           OK   MESONET

            NORTHWEST WIND OF 65 MPH MEASURED BY OKLAHOMA MESONET.

&&