Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
317 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS HAVE
MOVED OFF THE DRYLINE WHICH REMAINS FROM APPROXIMATELY ALVA...TO
WEATHERFORD TO NEAR SEYMOUR TEXAS. IT APPEARS AS DRYLINE AS MADE A
BIT OF A PUSH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CU HAD BEGUN TO REFORM JUST
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SECOND ROUND
OF STORMS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AFFOREMENTIONED STORMS HAVE WORKED
OVER THE ATMOSPHERE AND THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
NEAR THE DRYLINE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS. NONETHELESS...
WIDESPREAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THANKS TO THE LLJ...WILL SUPPORT STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO CATCH UP WITH THE DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MID
DAY...AND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF OUR
AREA.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
COMES DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING IN LINE AS BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE PICKED UP ON
THIS...BUT STRENGTH AND TIMING ARE STILL IN QUESTION. CURRENTLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST EARLY SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE WARM AND DRY.

OTHERWISE...WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND RED FLAG
WARNING FOR NORTH TEXAS ZONES WERE CANCELLED FOR TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  66  48  67 /  40  40  40   0
HOBART OK         50  62  45  69 /  10  40  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  71  50  74 /  20  20  20   0
GAGE OK           48  56  41  68 /  20  50  30   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  67  48  65 /  60  60  50  20
DURANT OK         65  74  52  71 /  70  40  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS EAST OF LINE FROM ALVA...TO WEATHERFORD...TO
LAWTON...TO SEYMOUR TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM NOON
UNTIL 4 AM.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO 3 INCHES AND TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...ARE THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS. WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND FLOODING RAINS ARE THE SECONDARY
IMPACTS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO ITS EAST. EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL BE A DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE ORIENTED
NORTH-SOUTH. ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE...STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. ADEQUATE LOW AND DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL COMBINE WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO STALL WEST OF I-35 BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD BACKUP SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
SUPERCELL STORMS...PRODUCING TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND FLOODING RAINS WILL BE A CONCERN ANYWHERE NEAR AND
EAST OF THIS DRY LINE THROUGH TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY APR 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN ONE-QUARTER OF OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  AS A RESULT... A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN
AFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREA...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE.  PLEASE REFER TO THE WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THOSE AREAS DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. THE COLD
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS TO BE
EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCERS. HIGHER VALUES OF WIND SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...COULD BE SUSTAINED. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE
MENTIONED AREAS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

11

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
316 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

OKZ040-242030-
GARVIN OK-
316 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARVIN COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAULS VALLEY
AT 316 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN GARVIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
319 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

OKZ042-043-047-242030-
COAL OK-JOHNSTON OK-PONTOTOC OK-
319 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COAL...JOHNSTON AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CONNERVILLE AT 319 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN COAL...JOHNSTON AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

..SPEG.