Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
600 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ALVA...TO WOODWARD...TO CHEYENNE. THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA COVERS ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA LOCATIONS WEST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM PONCA CITY...TO SHAWNEE...TO MADILL.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS FROM EARLY
THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE MODERATE
RISK AREA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS OTHER AREAS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE GOLFBALL-SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG AND
EAST OF A DRY LINE WHICH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS ALTHOUGH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES AND INTERACTS WITH DISCRETE STORMS.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE DRYLINE BETWEEN MIDLAND AND
LUBBOCK WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO.  THESE
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY APR 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ALVA...TO
WEATHERFORD...TO WICHITA FALLS. A SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS
WEST OF THIS MODERATE RISK.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
OVER THE MODERATE AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS...BUT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE MAIN HAZARDS ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA WILL BE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS...WHILE TENNIS
BALL SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND TORNADOES...
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MODERATE RISK. IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOODING
TYPE RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER-STORM MOVES OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE-SIZED HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE FIRE DANGER MAY REACH CRITICAL LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE DRYLINE...AS STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM
TEMPERATURES DEVELOP.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

11/02