Tornado Warning 1, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WWUS54 KLUB 240048
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
746 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TXC017-240145-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070324T0145Z/
BAILEY TX-
746 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR BAILEY
COUNTY...

AT 744 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  
ADDITIONALLY...STORM SPOTTERS INDICATED A DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR 
CAUSEY NEW MEXICO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 
NEAR NEEDMORE...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTH OF MULESHOE...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MULESHOE WILDLIFE
REFUGE....NEEDMORE AND MULESHOE.

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...TAKE COVER NOW ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3385 10302 3385 10279 3405 10263 3430 10266
      3417 10302

$$

000 
WWUS54 KLUB 240053
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
749 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TXC017-240145-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070324T0145Z/
BAILEY TX-
749 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR BAILEY
COUNTY...

AT 744 PM CDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO 
NEAR CAUSEY NEW MEXICO.  THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS 
ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE...AROUND 27 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF MULESHOE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE TRACK WILL 
BRING THE STORM INTO WESTERN BAILEY COUNTY BY 810 PM.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE NEEDMORE AND 
MULESHOE...WESTERN PORTIONS OF COUNTY ROAD 298 AND COUNTY ROAD 1731.

A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED THIS TORNADO MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN 
AND NOT EASILY SEEN. IF YOU WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR IT COMING IT 
MAY BE TOO LATE. TAKE SHELTER NOW

LAT...LON 3385 10302 3385 10279 3405 10263 3430 10266
      3417 10302

$$

000 
WWUS54 KLUB 240109
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
806 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TXC017-240145-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070324T0145Z/
BAILEY TX-
806 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
BAILEY COUNTY...

AT 802 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS 
STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART 
OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST CAMP...MOVING 
NORTH NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE WEST 
CAMP...PROGRESS...MULESHOE AND COUNTY ROADS 1731 AND 1760 IN 
NORTHWEST BAILEY COUNTY.

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...TAKE COVER NOW ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3398 10303 3402 10282 3408 10272 3430 10266
      3429 10302

$$

000 
WWUS54 KLUB 240117
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
815 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TXC017-240145-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070324T0145Z/
BAILEY TX-
815 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
BAILEY COUNTY...

AT 810 PM CDT...NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED A ROTATING WALL CLOUD 
APPROXIMATELY 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST CAMP NEAR THE STATE LINE. 
THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE WEST CAMP.

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...TAKE COVER NOW ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3398 10303 3402 10282 3408 10272 3430 10266
      3429 10302

$$

000 
WWUS54 KLUB 240123
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
822 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TXC017-240145-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070324T0145Z/
BAILEY TX-
822 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
BAILEY COUNTY...

AT 719 PM CDT...NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED A TORNADO LOCATED ABOUT 8 
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST CAMP NEAR THE STATE LINE. THE STORM WAS 
MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE WEST CAMP.

A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED TAKE COVER IN A STURDY BUILDING NOW.
MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES ARE NOT SAFE.

LAT...LON 3398 10303 3402 10282 3408 10272 3430 10266
      3429 10302

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
343 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

.SHORT TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO SHORT-TERM FCST. TSTMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
NM AS THAT AREA FEELS LIFT FROM APPROACHING UPPER-LOW. CLEARING LINE
HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA. 15Z SOUNDING FROM WTXM/KREE DID
NOT SHOW MUCH CIN IN PLACE AND SUSPECT THAT 2-3000 J/KG OF ENERGY
WILL BE ABLE TO BE REALIZED BY TSTM CELLS AS THEY ENTER THE CWA FROM
THE WEST/SW. PROGGED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION AND MOST DERIVED INDICES INDICATE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND/OR HIGH WINDS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER THE TORNADO THREAT...LCLS ARE COMING
UP ACROSS THE WEST AS T/TD SPREADS INCREASE...BUT LCL/LFC VALUES DO
NOT APPEAR TO PRECLUDE TORNADOES. WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS PRE-EXISTING
BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH WILL WATCH FOR ANY RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS TO
TAP INTO THE SR HELICITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST ONE LARGE MCS TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA. GIVEN THE STRONG SE LLJ...THE HIGH PWATS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF REPEATED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SAME AREA...FLASH
FLOODING IS A THREAT...PLEASE SEE SECTION BELOW. THE COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD LOSE
INTENSITY AS IT OUTRUNS THE STRONGEST LIFT...AS UPPER-LOW EJECTS NE
THROUGH E-NE NM.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES LATER SAT MORN AS
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP BACK EDGE
TO THE ACTIVITY AS IT SWINGS NE ACROSS THE CWA. THE REMAINDER OF SAT
SHOULD BE BREEZY AND A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT AS A PACIFIC FRONT WORKS
THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SE.

.LONG TERM...
FIRST LOW EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO OUR NORTH LATE ON SATURDAY WITH
DIMINISHING TREND IN THUNDERSTORMS AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND STRONGER...HOWEVER...WITH THE
FOLLOWING LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE ON
SUNDAY. WE PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IMPROVING AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...TOO...
HEADS EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION THREAT...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK AS HIGH AS EARLY THIS WEEKEND. DRIER MORE ZONAL
FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE COMING WEEK WITH NEXT WAVE FAIRLY SHARP BUT
STILL LIKELY TO PASS TO OUR NORTH. THIS MAY SHARPEN UP DRY-LINE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT EASTERN ZONES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
ALREADY INDICATED. MORE ZONAL FLOW TO FOLLOW WITH MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES.  MCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTER A PERIOD OF CLEARING AT KLBB THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LUBBOCK AREA AROUND 00Z/7 PM...WITH
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
00Z/7PM CDT AND 06Z/1 AM CDT AT KLBB. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A
CLEARING TREND FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  67  49  69  48 /  90  30  30  30  10
TULIA         53  69  49  70  49 /  90  50  40  40  20
PLAINVIEW     53  70  51  68  50 /  90  50  30  50  20
LEVELLAND     54  70  53  68  51 /  90  40  20  60  20
LUBBOCK       56  71  54  68  52 /  80  50  30  60  30
BROWNFIELD    55  72  53  67  52 /  80  40  20  60  30
CHILDRESS     57  75  58  71  54 /  80  70  50  50  50
SPUR          58  73  57  68  53 /  80  60  40  60  50
ASPERMONT     59  74  58  67  56 /  70  60  50  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>029-033>035-039>041.

&&

33/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TXZ021>044-242100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
357 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 27 THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WITHIN A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE REMAINING AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK.

FLOODING

TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY
THE THREAT SHOULD BE CHIEFLY ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO BORDER COUNTIES
AND THEN SLOWLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE SRN PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES MAY
CAUSE FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 12Z/7
AM CDT/ SAT MORN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY EAST OF INTERSTATE 27. THESE STORMS COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND MAY BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TXZ027-033-039-240000-
BAILEY TX-COCHRAN TX-YOAKUM TX-
622 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER YOAKUM...
COCHRAN AND BAILEY COUNTIES...

AT 620 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE MONITORING
A TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM NEAR TATUM NEW MEXICO. THIS STORM IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH...AND IF IT REMAINS ON THIS TRACK AND
INTENSITY...IT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCHRAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN BAILEY COUNTIES BY 7 PM CDT. RESIDENTS IN AND NEAR
BLEDSOE SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
656 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TXZ027-033-240100-
BAILEY TX-COCHRAN TX-
656 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER COCHRAN AND
BAILEY COUNTIES...

AT 652 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE MONITORING
A TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM NEAR CROSSROADS NEW MEXICO MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. IF THIS STORM REMAINS ON THIS TRACK AND
INTENSITY IT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST COCHRAN AND
SOUTHWEST BAILEY COUNTIES BY 8 PM CDT. RESIDENTS IN AND NEAR
GRIFFITH...GOODLAND AND BAILEYBORO SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AS THE STORM APPROACHES.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.