Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
343 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

.SHORT TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO SHORT-TERM FCST. TSTMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
NM AS THAT AREA FEELS LIFT FROM APPROACHING UPPER-LOW. CLEARING LINE
HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA. 15Z SOUNDING FROM WTXM/KREE DID
NOT SHOW MUCH CIN IN PLACE AND SUSPECT THAT 2-3000 J/KG OF ENERGY
WILL BE ABLE TO BE REALIZED BY TSTM CELLS AS THEY ENTER THE CWA FROM
THE WEST/SW. PROGGED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION AND MOST DERIVED INDICES INDICATE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND/OR HIGH WINDS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER THE TORNADO THREAT...LCLS ARE COMING
UP ACROSS THE WEST AS T/TD SPREADS INCREASE...BUT LCL/LFC VALUES DO
NOT APPEAR TO PRECLUDE TORNADOES. WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS PRE-EXISTING
BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH WILL WATCH FOR ANY RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS TO
TAP INTO THE SR HELICITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST ONE LARGE MCS TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA. GIVEN THE STRONG SE LLJ...THE HIGH PWATS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF REPEATED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SAME AREA...FLASH
FLOODING IS A THREAT...PLEASE SEE SECTION BELOW. THE COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD LOSE
INTENSITY AS IT OUTRUNS THE STRONGEST LIFT...AS UPPER-LOW EJECTS NE
THROUGH E-NE NM.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES LATER SAT MORN AS
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP BACK EDGE
TO THE ACTIVITY AS IT SWINGS NE ACROSS THE CWA. THE REMAINDER OF SAT
SHOULD BE BREEZY AND A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT AS A PACIFIC FRONT WORKS
THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SE.

.LONG TERM...
FIRST LOW EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO OUR NORTH LATE ON SATURDAY WITH
DIMINISHING TREND IN THUNDERSTORMS AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND STRONGER...HOWEVER...WITH THE
FOLLOWING LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE ON
SUNDAY. WE PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IMPROVING AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...TOO...
HEADS EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION THREAT...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK AS HIGH AS EARLY THIS WEEKEND. DRIER MORE ZONAL
FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE COMING WEEK WITH NEXT WAVE FAIRLY SHARP BUT
STILL LIKELY TO PASS TO OUR NORTH. THIS MAY SHARPEN UP DRY-LINE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT EASTERN ZONES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
ALREADY INDICATED. MORE ZONAL FLOW TO FOLLOW WITH MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES.  MCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTER A PERIOD OF CLEARING AT KLBB THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LUBBOCK AREA AROUND 00Z/7 PM...WITH
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
00Z/7PM CDT AND 06Z/1 AM CDT AT KLBB. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A
CLEARING TREND FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  67  49  69  48 /  90  30  30  30  10
TULIA         53  69  49  70  49 /  90  50  40  40  20
PLAINVIEW     53  70  51  68  50 /  90  50  30  50  20
LEVELLAND     54  70  53  68  51 /  90  40  20  60  20
LUBBOCK       56  71  54  68  52 /  80  50  30  60  30
BROWNFIELD    55  72  53  67  52 /  80  40  20  60  30
CHILDRESS     57  75  58  71  54 /  80  70  50  50  50
SPUR          58  73  57  68  53 /  80  60  40  60  50
ASPERMONT     59  74  58  67  56 /  70  60  50  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>029-033>035-039>041.

&&

33/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TXZ021>044-242100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
357 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 27 THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WITHIN A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE REMAINING AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK.

FLOODING

TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY
THE THREAT SHOULD BE CHIEFLY ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO BORDER COUNTIES
AND THEN SLOWLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE SRN PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES MAY
CAUSE FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 12Z/7
AM CDT/ SAT MORN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY EAST OF INTERSTATE 27. THESE STORMS COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND MAY BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TXZ027-033-039-240000-
BAILEY TX-COCHRAN TX-YOAKUM TX-
622 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER YOAKUM...
COCHRAN AND BAILEY COUNTIES...

AT 620 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE MONITORING
A TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM NEAR TATUM NEW MEXICO. THIS STORM IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH...AND IF IT REMAINS ON THIS TRACK AND
INTENSITY...IT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCHRAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN BAILEY COUNTIES BY 7 PM CDT. RESIDENTS IN AND NEAR
BLEDSOE SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
656 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TXZ027-033-240100-
BAILEY TX-COCHRAN TX-
656 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER COCHRAN AND
BAILEY COUNTIES...

AT 652 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE MONITORING
A TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM NEAR CROSSROADS NEW MEXICO MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. IF THIS STORM REMAINS ON THIS TRACK AND
INTENSITY IT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST COCHRAN AND
SOUTHWEST BAILEY COUNTIES BY 8 PM CDT. RESIDENTS IN AND NEAR
GRIFFITH...GOODLAND AND BAILEYBORO SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AS THE STORM APPROACHES.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
825 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TXZ021-240200-
PARMER TX-
825 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PARMER
COUNTY...

AT 824 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE MONITORING
A TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FARWELL NEAR THE STATE
LINE. THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS TRACK
WILL BRING THE THUNDERSTORM INTO SOUTHWEST PARMER COUNTY BY 845 PM.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
911 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TORNADO          3 S FARWELL             34.35N 103.03W
03/23/2007                   PARMER             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RELAYED BY KLBK VIEWER. NO DETAILS KNOWN AT THIS TIME ON
            DAMAGE.

&&

JDV