Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
816 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

.UPDATE...
SUPERCELLS HAVE MOVED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...WITH NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS FROM
MORTON TO NEAR TATUM AND LOVINGTON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO FILL IN ALONG CONVERGENT TROUGH AXIS. WINDS HAVE
BACKED IN THE MOIST AIR OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH 60
DEG DEWPOINTS AS FAR WEST AS BROWNFIELD AND LEVELLAND.

PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
EVENTUALLY INTERCEPT THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE WITH DISCRETE STORMS
MERGING/DEVELOPING INTO SQUALL LINE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS IN THE 02-06Z TIME FRAME...AND ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SE PANHANDLE THEREAFTER. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SEVERE THREAT PAST MIDNIGHT WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
HAIL...WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        39  65  38  61  36 /  20   0  10  10  20
TULIA         46  68  39  63  38 /  50  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     47  69  40  63  40 /  50  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     46  68  40  67  41 /  30  10  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       48  70  42  68  41 /  50  10  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    46  71  41  67  42 /  30  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     55  73  51  69  45 /  70  30  20  40  20
SPUR          55  72  45  67  44 /  60  20  20  40  10
ASPERMONT     59  71  49  67  47 /  70  40  30  40  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

JJ/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

TXZ021>044-291645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1143 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON JUST EAST OF THE NEW MEXICO
STATE LINE. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX
THROUGH THE EVENING AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

FLOODING

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 PM     HAIL             LUBBOCK                 33.58N 101.86W
03/28/2007  E1.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT FOX 34 FROM
            1128PM-1135PM.

&&

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     HAIL             LUBBOCK                 33.58N 101.86W
03/28/2007  E0.88 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND AT 12TH STREET AND
            CHICAGO.

&&

FB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

TXZ035-290515-
LUBBOCK TX-
1152 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN LUBBOCK COUNTY...

AT 1150 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER IDALOU...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ABERNATHY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP MARBLE SIZE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LUBBOCK COUNTY UNTIL 6 AM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 AM     HAIL             7 W TAHOKA              33.16N 101.92W
03/29/2007  E0.88 INCH       LYNN               TX   PUBLIC

&&

TLINDLEY

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