Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
816 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

.UPDATE...
SUPERCELLS HAVE MOVED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...WITH NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS FROM
MORTON TO NEAR TATUM AND LOVINGTON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO FILL IN ALONG CONVERGENT TROUGH AXIS. WINDS HAVE
BACKED IN THE MOIST AIR OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH 60
DEG DEWPOINTS AS FAR WEST AS BROWNFIELD AND LEVELLAND.

PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
EVENTUALLY INTERCEPT THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE WITH DISCRETE STORMS
MERGING/DEVELOPING INTO SQUALL LINE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS IN THE 02-06Z TIME FRAME...AND ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SE PANHANDLE THEREAFTER. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SEVERE THREAT PAST MIDNIGHT WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
HAIL...WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        39  65  38  61  36 /  20   0  10  10  20
TULIA         46  68  39  63  38 /  50  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     47  69  40  63  40 /  50  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     46  68  40  67  41 /  30  10  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       48  70  42  68  41 /  50  10  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    46  71  41  67  42 /  30  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     55  73  51  69  45 /  70  30  20  40  20
SPUR          55  72  45  67  44 /  60  20  20  40  10
ASPERMONT     59  71  49  67  47 /  70  40  30  40  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

JJ/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

TXZ021>044-291645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1143 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON JUST EAST OF THE NEW MEXICO
STATE LINE. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX
THROUGH THE EVENING AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

FLOODING

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
718 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     TORNADO          12 SW BRICE             34.59N 101.04W
03/28/2007                   BRISCOE            TX   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND 12 MILES
            SOUTHWEST OF BRICE AT 643 PM CDT. IT DISSIPATED AT 709 PM
            CDT.

&&

FBOWSER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
813 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

TXZ021>044-290230-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...DIMMITT...HART...
TULIA...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...MEMPHIS...TURKEY...CHILDRESS...
MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA...LOCKNEY...
MATADOR...ROARING SPRINGS...PADUCAH...MORTON...LEVELLAND...
LUBBOCK...SLATON...WOLFFORTH...CROSBYTON...RALLS...DICKENS...
SPUR...GUTHRIE...PLAINS...DENVER CITY...BROWNFIELD...TAHOKA...
ODONNELL...POST...JAYTON...ASPERMONT
813 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

TORNADO PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS FLOYD...BRISCOE
AND HALL COUNTIES HAVE ALL MOVED INTO THE PANHANDLE. SEVERAL
LONG LIVED TORNADOES WERE REPORTED. DAMAGE REPORTS ARE LIMITED AT
THIS TIME.

ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL ROTATE OVER WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL TRACK TOWARDS WEST TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO LINE UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AROUND 9 PM.
AS THIS LINE MOVES EASTWARD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH TURNING OF THE WINDS
AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL TORNADOES.

IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR COMMUNITY BE PREPARED TO TAKE COVER.

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