Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
120 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FOCUS ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS TN AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS
ACROSS WEST TN. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/MOISTURE EXISTS FOR THIS
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EWRD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH PEAK
HEATING. DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR CARRYING A BIT MORE EWRD MOVEMENT THAN
IN RECENT DAYS...AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND A RISK OF ISLTD MICROBURSTS/WIND DAMAGE INTO THE
EVNG. CURRENTLY PLANNING A LOW END SCTD POP FOR THE EVNG
HOURS...UNLESS LAST MINUTE RADAR TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE. PCPN
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH FOLLOWING SUNSET... ALTHOUGH WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISLTD STORM
OR TWO LINGERING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE HUN CWFA BY MONDAY. WHILE SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR (MID 60S DEWPTS) MAY FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY...ENOUGH
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL STILL EXIST FOR POTENTIAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF ANY LINGERING
MESOSCALE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
TYPE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE/INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM EAST TO
WEST THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH THE NAM MORE ROBUST IN
DEVELOPING SCTD CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE FOCUSED TOWARD THE SOUTH...BETTER PCPN CHANCES WILL
CONSEQUENTLY LIE SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER...AND WILL TAPER POPS
ACCORDINGLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERMAL PROFILE NOT NEARLY AS
FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS IN RECENT DAYS WITH THE
DEEPER/DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...BUT A FEW STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH
MID-WEEK...AS A WEAK SHEAR AXIS/CONVERGENCE ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LWR/MID 90S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...GFS SUGGESTING ANOTHER POTENTIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL REMAIN
SKEPTICAL...AND JUST MAINTAIN 20/30 PERCENT POPS TO COVER THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL ACTIVITY THAT WILL ACCOMPANY A PREDOMINANT U/L
NWERLY FLOW CONTAINING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SEASONABLE...INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /  30  20  10  20
SHOALS        70  93  68  92 /  30  20  10  20
CULLMAN       70  90  68  89 /  30  30  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  68  91  66  90 /  30  20  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   69  90  66  89 /  30  30  10  20
FORT PAYNE    68  91  65  89 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1252 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-020300-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1252 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LIKE PREVIOUS
DAYS...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS BEING GUSTY OR DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON ANY OF THESE DAYS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
301 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HULACO                  34.31N 86.60W
07/01/2007                   MORGAN             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF BLOWN OFF A BUILDING IN HULACO.

&&

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
312 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ATHENS                  34.80N 86.97W
07/01/2007                   LIMESTONE          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN IN ATHENS ON NORTH CLINTON STREET.

&&

MR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
313 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

ALZ008>010-012100-
DE KALB-JACKSON-MARSHALL-
313 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DEKALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 308 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SECTION TO GERALDINE
TO ALBERTVILLE.  A GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS IS
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...AND MAY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. OTHER ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING OVER DEKALB COUNTY IN AND AROUND FORT PAYNE...CROSSVILLE
AND DESOTO STATE PARK.

ONCE THE STORMS ARRIVE...ALSO EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA.

KULA