Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
120 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FOCUS ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS TN AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS
ACROSS WEST TN. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/MOISTURE EXISTS FOR THIS
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EWRD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH PEAK
HEATING. DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR CARRYING A BIT MORE EWRD MOVEMENT THAN
IN RECENT DAYS...AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND A RISK OF ISLTD MICROBURSTS/WIND DAMAGE INTO THE
EVNG. CURRENTLY PLANNING A LOW END SCTD POP FOR THE EVNG
HOURS...UNLESS LAST MINUTE RADAR TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE. PCPN
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH FOLLOWING SUNSET... ALTHOUGH WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISLTD STORM
OR TWO LINGERING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE HUN CWFA BY MONDAY. WHILE SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR (MID 60S DEWPTS) MAY FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY...ENOUGH
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL STILL EXIST FOR POTENTIAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF ANY LINGERING
MESOSCALE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
TYPE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE/INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM EAST TO
WEST THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH THE NAM MORE ROBUST IN
DEVELOPING SCTD CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE FOCUSED TOWARD THE SOUTH...BETTER PCPN CHANCES WILL
CONSEQUENTLY LIE SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER...AND WILL TAPER POPS
ACCORDINGLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERMAL PROFILE NOT NEARLY AS
FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS IN RECENT DAYS WITH THE
DEEPER/DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...BUT A FEW STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH
MID-WEEK...AS A WEAK SHEAR AXIS/CONVERGENCE ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LWR/MID 90S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...GFS SUGGESTING ANOTHER POTENTIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL REMAIN
SKEPTICAL...AND JUST MAINTAIN 20/30 PERCENT POPS TO COVER THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL ACTIVITY THAT WILL ACCOMPANY A PREDOMINANT U/L
NWERLY FLOW CONTAINING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SEASONABLE...INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  92  68  91 /  30  20  10  20
SHOALS        70  93  68  92 /  30  20  10  20
CULLMAN       70  90  68  89 /  30  30  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  68  91  66  90 /  30  20  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   69  90  66  89 /  30  30  10  20
FORT PAYNE    68  91  65  89 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1252 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-020300-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1252 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LIKE PREVIOUS
DAYS...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS BEING GUSTY OR DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON ANY OF THESE DAYS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

ALZ001-002-011745-
COLBERT-LAUDERDALE-
1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR COLBERT AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1202 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE ALERT AREA.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

PEOPLE IN COLBERT AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
LEXINGTON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND TAKE APPROPRIATE SHELTER NOW.

IF ON OR NEAR PICKWICK AND WILSON LAKES...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND
MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE
OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. DONT BE CAUGHT ON THE
WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1208 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

ALZ004-011745-
LAWRENCE-
1208 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LAWRENCE COUNTY UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOWN CREEK...OR 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MOULTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  NE SMITH.
  HATTON.
  LANDERSVILLE.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

ALZ006-011830-
MADISON-
1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 1240 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUNTSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
HUNTSVILLE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA.

KULA

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