Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
951 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY IS AHEAD...WITH MAIN CONVECTIVE
THREATS DOWNBURSTS. CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPS ALREADY CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
L-M80S. MCS OVER WESTERN-MIDDLE TN IS DECAYING SOMEWHAT WITH WARMING
TOPS. SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WEST OF THE NASHVILLE METRO
THROUGH NORTHERN MS. 2HR PRESSURE CHANGES INDICATE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL SLOW OR STALL JUST TO OUR NW...AND SHOULD BE
ONE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. 12Z MORNING SOUNDING STILL
DENOTE STRONG POTENTIAL CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO CAP
TO SPEAK OF. AT KOHX...VWP SHOWS A BIT MORE MID TO UPPER LEVEL W-NW
FLOW WHICH MAY LEND TO INCREASED STORM RELATIVE AND LONGER STORM
LIFE SPANS THAN WEVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...AT LEAST WITH STORMS
IN TN. ALSO...A DRY POCKET AT 7H SHOWS UP...WHICH HAS LOWERED THE
WBZ HEIGHT CONSIDERABLY AT THIS LOCATION. STILL LOOKING FOR WINDS TO
BE MAIN THREAT THOUGH.

LOCALLY...FAIRLY RANDOM CONVECTION SHOULD BUBBLE UP FAIRLY EASILY
17-19Z...WITH NO DEFINITIVE BOUNDARIES NOTED IN OBS NETWORK. VFR
AC HAS DEVELOPED OVERHEAD WHICH MAY LIMIT TEMP CLIMB JUST A
BIT...BUT BASED ON PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED
MAXES A COUPLE NOTCHES. AFTERNOON MU-CAPES SHOULD EXCEED 3500 J/KG
IN A FEW LOCATIONS GIVEN DEW POINTS IN THE L70S. NOT CERTAIN A
SEVERE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED...BUT AREA RESIDES ON NORTHERN FRINGE
OF SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK...WHICH LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

KULA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
430 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-011800-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
430 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LIKE PREVIOUS
DAYS...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS BEING GUSTY OR DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON ANY OF THESE DAYS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1110 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

ALZ001-002-011700-
COLBERT-LAUDERDALE-
1110 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR COLBERT AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 1108 AM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING NEAR PINEFLAT...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF IUKA...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  WATERLOO.
  WRIGHT.

IF ON OR NEAR PICKWICK LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.
DONT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

ALZ001-002-011745-
COLBERT-LAUDERDALE-
1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR COLBERT AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1202 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE ALERT AREA.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

PEOPLE IN COLBERT AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
LEXINGTON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND TAKE APPROPRIATE SHELTER NOW.

IF ON OR NEAR PICKWICK AND WILSON LAKES...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND
MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE
OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. DONT BE CAUGHT ON THE
WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1208 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

ALZ004-011745-
LAWRENCE-
1208 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LAWRENCE COUNTY UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOWN CREEK...OR 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MOULTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  NE SMITH.
  HATTON.
  LANDERSVILLE.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

ALZ006-011830-
MADISON-
1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 1240 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUNTSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
HUNTSVILLE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA.

KULA