Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST IS UNFOLDING MORE OR LESS AS PLANNED...AS
CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS OF TERRAIN
FORCING OVER THE MTNS. MEANWHILE...NOT MUCH IS GOING ON ALONG THE
BACKDOOR FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE I-85
CORRIDOR IN NC. IN FACT...THE CU FIELD LOOKS QUITE SUPPRESSED
DESPITE AN AREA OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE WITHIN THE POOLING MOISTURE AXIS
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS EVENING FROM ROUGHLY I-85 NORTH.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POPS GO THROUGH THE ROOF OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH
LEVELS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
HOWEVER...FORCING IS VERY PALTRY. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF WEAK
LOW-MID LEVEL UPGLIDE...BUT THE FLOW IS EXTREMELY WEAK...SO THIS
UPGLIDE WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY STRONG. SO FAR TODAY...GUIDANCE POPS
FROM EARLIER RUNS HAVE VERIFIED MUCH TOO HIGH...AND THINK THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT. WE HAVE STUCK VERY CLOSE TO OUR
ORIGINAL FORECAST OF LOW-END LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH UNDERCUTS GUIDANCE BY A GOOD 20-30 PERCENT.

COOL WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...AS COLD AIR DAMMING/WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOLID CHANCE POPS...AGAIN UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF FORCING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH SFC BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO PUSH WELL S OF AREA SAT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER REGION FROM THE NE ON SUN AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SUN
THROUGH TUE. EXPECT DRY FORECAST FIRST PART OF WEEK WITH TEMPS
WARMING EACH DAY AND REACHING INTO THE LOW 80S BY TUE AFTN.

AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH E
ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE REGION...BRINGING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY TO THE MTNS WED-THU. AS SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND PUTS AREA INTO INCREASING S FLOW...AFTN HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE MID 80S BY LATE WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
THE MAIN NEAR-TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE AT
KAVL...WHERE RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED TSRA OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL AT 18Z. TEMPOS FOR RA W/ 5SM HAVE BEEN
CARRIED THERE. OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION...BUT WE DO NOT FEEL THE THREAT IS HIGH
ENOUGH FOR EVEN A TEMPO ATTM. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHRA WILL LIKELY
BE AROUND OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOWERING
CIGS...WHICH SHOULD LOWER TO IFR AT MOST TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIND SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS
OR SO FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HOPEFULLY PRECLUDING FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
441 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-041000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
441 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

NCZ064-065-031845-
HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
148 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 145 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ETOWAH...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BREVARD...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN
  HOME...MILLS RIVER...AND ETOWAH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 PM     HAIL             CANTO                   35.70N 82.76W
05/03/2007  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL FOR 20 MINUTES...ENDED AT 252 PM.

&&

MOORE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
453 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

NCZ082-032200-
UNION-
453 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM EDT...

AT 455 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...FROM LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF
ANSON COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DRIFT OR DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF UNION COUNTY NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 530 PM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY...FROM WAXHAW TO MONROE...WINGATE...
AND MARSHVILLE...SOUTH TO THE STATE LINE...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
505 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

SCZ003-006-007-032200-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
505 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GREENVILLE AND SPARTANBURG
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 459 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH SALUDA
RESERVOIR TO TAYLORS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  BOWEN...NORTH SALUDA RESERVOIR...WELLFORD...TIGERVILLE...LYMAN...
  LANDRUM...INMAN...GOWENSVILLE AND CAMPOBELLO.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY

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