Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

May 3, 2007Madison County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 3, 2007, 2:19 PM EDT for Madison County, North Carolina. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 3, 2007, 2:19 PM EDT (18:19 UTC)
Expired
May 3, 2007, 3:00 PM EDT
In force
41 min
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Madison County, NC

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 13 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 262 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2007-05-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 108 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2007-05-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 43 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
108 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-144 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
711 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
144 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS52 KGSP 031820
SVRGSP
NCC115-031900-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0048.070503T1819Z-070503T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
219 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 211 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND 
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
  CANTO...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CANTO THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR 
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAIN CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM 
WINDOWS AND DOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING...THROUGH OUR
AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL FREE NUMBER...
1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3578 8294 3567 8288 3577 8257 3591 8263

$$

GMS/MCAVOY
2 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS52 KGSP 031843
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

NCC115-031900-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-070503T1900Z/
MADISON NC-
243 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY...

AT 236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARSHALL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LAT...LON 3578 8294 3567 8288 3577 8257 3591 8263

$$

GMS
000 
WWUS52 KGSP 031902
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
302 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

NCC115-031912-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-070503T1900Z/
MADISON NC-
302 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY HAS 
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

OTHER STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS 
OF THE COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

LAT...LON 3578 8294 3567 8288 3577 8257 3591 8263

$$

GMS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 3, 10:09 AM EDT, 4 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 3, 10:09 AM EDT, 4 hours 10 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1009 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS REQUIRED TO THE FIRST PERIOD ATTM...AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DECENT CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY UPPER SUPPORT...AND
INSTABILITY IS NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. IN FACT...I FEAR THE
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY A BIT...AS THERE WILL BE
DECENT MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONSIDERING
HOW DRY THE SOIL IS ACROSS THE REGION...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE DEWPOINTS DIP TO AROUND 50 IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS
WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL
BE JUICIER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE AN AXIS OF
DECENT INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS MOISTURE
POOLS WITHIN THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO FORECAST POPS IN THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-85...WITH TOKEN LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 231 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2007/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH UPPER VORTICIES OVER
EASTERN AND WESTERN CANADA. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW IN
WESTERN NC WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY NEAR THE 850 MB FRONT...AND
POPS WILL BE CUT BACK TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE NC
BLUE RIDGE WHERE A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL EXIST. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO CARRY THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER UPGLIDE SHIFTS SOUTH THIS EVENING...FAVORING
LIKELY POPS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...WHERE AREAS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER. BY LATE TONIGHT
INSTABILITY SHIFTS COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE MODELS
CARRY THEIR BEST POPS AT THAT TIME...AND LIKELY POPS WILL BE
CONTINUED ALONG INTERSTATE 40. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RAISED TWO DEGREES TODAY WITH LESS PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER ELEVATED UNDER A THICKENING
CLOUD DECK...DESPITE COLD ADVECTION.

THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE COLD AIR DAMMING BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED.
850 MB FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...HOWEVER ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE SFC TO 700 MB LAYER WILL COMBINE WITH ANY DEGREE
OF UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO WARRANT COTINUED HEALTHY CHANCE
POPS. A THUNDER MENTION WILL BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SW
MTNS OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE.

THE FLOW OVER THE CAD LAYER WILL BECOME EVEN MORE VARIABLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST. POPS
WILL BE LOWERED INTO THE LESSER CHANCE RANGE AND TEMPERATURES
BELOW MOS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FEATURED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE COLD AIR
DAMMING REGION WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLOUDY SKIES EARLY SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A DIURNAL CLOUD
TREND...WITH MORE BREAKS APPEARING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID WEEK.

AVIATION /07Z-06Z/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM NC INTO SC. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HAVE BEEN LOWERED...ESPECIALLY IN SC...AND ONLY KAVL WILL BE
GIVEN A TEMPO GROUP FOR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID EVENING
THE MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A DRAMATIC LOWERING OF CLOUDS LEVELS...
AND MVFR CEILING WILL BE CARRIED AT THAT TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...BUT ONLY SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY WILL BE CARRIED AT
KAVL AND KCLT LATE IN THE EVENING. MODEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DO
NOT SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT...DESPITE THE FACT
THAT SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS CARRY MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LANE
Hazardous weather outlook, May 3, 4:41 AM EDT, 9 hours 38 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
441 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-041000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
441 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HG

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 3, 1:48 PM EDT, 31 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

NCZ064-065-031845-
HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
148 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 145 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ETOWAH...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BREVARD...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN
  HOME...MILLS RIVER...AND ETOWAH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 3, 2:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPHenderson62 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2007Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.